Key facts:
Trump, for his part, leads the bets in the key states for the elections.
The debate is hosted by ABC News.
Kamala Harris leads the odds for the presidential debate against Donald Trump with a 74% probability, according to the betting platform Polymarket.
This figure reflects strong support for the American vice president and Democratic candidate for the presidency of the United States. At that betting house, more than 200,000 dollars will be distributed on the occasion of the debate between Trump and Harris.
As stated, if the Ipsos/538 poll indicates that Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump in the ABC debate, the market will settle in favor of “Kamala.” Similarly, if Donald Trump emerges victorious according to the same poll, the market will lean toward “Trump.” In the event of a tie in the results, the market will be split 50-50.
The market resolution will be based exclusively on who obtained a higher percentage on the question about the best performance or winner of the debate, without considering other parts of the Ipsos/538 survey. This approach ensures that public perception of debate performance is the sole criterion for evaluation.
In the event that Ipsos/538 does not publish a poll on the debate within a week of the debate, YouGov polls will be used to settle the market. If YouGov also fails to publish a poll within the deadline, the market will automatically settle at 50-50, indicating a lack of clear consensus or sufficient data to determine a winner.
The debate, hosted by ABC, is scheduled to begin today at 9:00 p.m. U.S. time. at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia.
On the betting platform, The comments reflect a division. “Arcanumz” supports Harris based on her experience as a prosecutor, arguing that her debate skills are underrated: “So many people betting on Trump to the point of being so pissed off. You know Kamala was a prosecutor. This was literally her job every day.”
On the other hand, “Goyabean” defends Trump, questioning Harris’s ability: “How can anyone dream of Kommie Kamala winning a debate against Trump?”
Trump wins the election, according to Polymarket
Despite Harris’ lead in the debate betting, in the broader context of the presidential electionPolymarket sample Trump with a 52% chance of victory compared to Harris’s 46%.
This Trump advantage extends to his lead in four of the six key states: Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia, crucial to the election under the US electoral system.
Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based betting platform, has gained notoriety for its ability to predict political and economic events. Uses the consensus of its users to establish probabilitiesbecoming an informal but influential indicator of public opinion and political trends.
This platform not only reflects the probability of events, but also captures the dynamics of current politics, where the bet on Harris in the debate contrasts with the support for Trump in the general election, showing an electoral battle that is decided in key states and in public perception.
This article was created using artificial intelligence and edited by a human on the editorial staff.