Key facts:
“Is bitcoin a bet that Trump will win?” Villaverde asks.
The analyst anticipates that Bitcoin could reach its lowest price on November 5.
The US presidential election could have a direct impact on the price of bitcoin (BTC) and, as a result, the entire cryptocurrency market.
For analyst and trader Juan Villaverde, the date of November 5, when the elections will be held in the United States, will mark a turning point for bitcoin and digital assets.
Although the analyst points out that Not everything revolves around this datesuggests that the future of BTC is closely tied to the outcome of the election.
That’s partly because Republican candidate Donald Trump has been a vocal proponent of Bitcoin throughout his campaign, saying the future of the digital currency will be shaped in the United States under his leadership.
Villaverde clarifies that the price of bitcoin is subject to key political events. In fact, the last three inflection points of the 80-day bitcoin cycle have coincided with crucial moments related to the Republican candidate.
Key Trump-Related Events
One example was on July 13, when BTC surged following the assassination attempt against Trump. The businessman was at a campaign event in the state of Pennsylvania, where he was injured after a sniper tried to kill him.
On that occasion, The price went from $56,000 to over $60,000as can be seen in the following graph TradingView.
On July 28, BTC also rose in price leading up to Trump’s participation at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. There, the candidate declared: “Bitcoin means freedom. This means no government interference. No more anti-cryptocurrency policies like Biden’s.”
After this, the market paused, resulting in the last confirmed high of the 80-day cycle. The price was close to 70,000 dollarsas indicated by the graph of TradingView.
The third turning point, suggested by Villaverde, was on August 23, when independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign and threw his support behind Trump, bitcoin rose again.
It should be noted that this was the same day that Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell signaled that interest rate cuts were on the horizon.
The next major turning point in the cycle, according to my timing model, is Tuesday, November 5, making the potential political connection even harder to ignore.
Juan Villaverde, analyst and trader.
A Trump victory is not certain
The WeissRatings specialist calls for not getting ahead of himself as Trump may not win, but that might not “matter as much as some might think.”
Cryptocurrencies are still finding their place in the political mainstream and are now on the radar of both major parties. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, while not making her stance on digital assets clear, has made efforts within her campaign to appeal to the digital asset community, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
With such initiatives, the Democratic Party is seeking to distance itself from the anti-bitcoin policies that characterized the Biden administration. According to Brian Nelson, a policy advisor to Harris’ campaign, she will support measures that promote the growth of digital assets.
“Whether Trump or Harris is sworn in on January 20, 2025, we will be looking at a more pro-cryptocurrency US administration than we have ever seen before. And if that isn’t a reason to keep an eye on the cryptocurrency market or start dabbling in it for the first time, I don’t know what is,” Villaverde adds.
If Trump wins, bitcoin will rise to $90,000, says Bernstein
According to Bernstein, a financial advisory firm, if Trump wins the election in November, bitcoin could reach $90,000 in the fourth quarter. On the other hand, if Harris wins the election, the digital currency is expected to reach $100,000. break its current floor around the $50,000 level and it could drop to $30,000 to $4,000
Contrary to Bernstein’s view, a victory for one or the other candidate will be beneficial for the digital currency, according to VanEck’s head of research Matthew Sigel. “I personally think BTC will rally, whoever wins, as the uncertainty is removed,” Indian through X.
If Kamala Harris wins, Sigel believes bitcoin will outperform, possibly implying it will reach new highs or outperform other cryptocurrencies.
In the event that Trump wins, the executive suggests that altcoins will also benefit and will continue to grow alongside bitcoinsuggesting a more balanced market between BTC and other cryptocurrencies.
