Allianz Trade predicts in a recent report that there will be around 21,500 bankruptcies by the end of this year. That is 15% more than in the pre-Corona year of 2019. Last year, the number of bankruptcies had already risen by 22%.
The credit insurer’s experts only expect a moderate increase in the number of cases by a further 2% to 22,000 cases in 2025.
“There were many large bankruptcies in the construction industry (9) and retail (9, of which 8 were in fashion retail) in particular. But also in services (7) and furniture and household goods (6),” says Milo Bogaerts, CEO of Allianz Trade. “The reasons for this accumulation are sometimes very different. Some companies were unable to meet the repayments of Corona loans due or had difficulty obtaining new loans due to more restrictive lending and the much higher requirements of financing partners. Still others were dependent on a single major customer who disappeared.”
In the fashion retail sector, some companies have been hanging by a thread for years, Bogaerts continued: “The consumer-oriented sectors are particularly feeling the current reluctance to buy. In addition, container freight rates remain high, which is causing concern for many companies in view of the upcoming Christmas business.”
Not only are bankruptcies increasing, but so are large-scale insolvencies. According to Allianz Trade, there were already 40 large insolvencies in the first half of 2024. This is not only the highest half-year figure since 2015, but also over a third (+37%) more than in the same period last year.
The cumulative turnover of the major bankruptcies amounted to EUR 11.6 billion in the first six months of 2024, which was already higher than the total damage for 2023 by the half-year mark. The average turnover of the insolvent large companies – and thus also the damage for the affected suppliers – was EUR 290 million, an increase of 85% (first half of 2023: EUR 156 million).
