Key facts:
The movement in the value of the dollar will impact BTC, according to the entrepreneur.
The outcome of the US presidential election could be crucial for Bitcoin.
According to Sebastián Serrano, founder and CEO of the crypto-asset exchange Ripio, bitcoin (BTC) has only covered part of the current bullish cycle. He stated this in an exclusive interview with CriptoNoticias at Modular, a cryptocurrency industry conference organized by the company in São Paulo on September 12.
As for the catalysts he expects for the price of bitcoin, he clarifies that The fundamentals are always the sameHe highlights that this technology is valuable because it has more and more users, transactions, security and scalability developments. In addition, its network operates without interruptions year after year, which he says gives confidence.
In other words, he explains that this translates into more use cases and, consequently, demand that drives the price of the currency up. However, he makes the caveat that this process is not linear, which is why the price fluctuates and has corrective periods.
For six months, Bitcoin has been in a corrective sideways period after having reached an all-time high of $73,700 (USD) in March. Serrano attributes the rise to Early 2024 to the launch of exchange-traded funds (ETF) of the currency in the United States. The price movement can be seen below.
He points out that, with the ETFs, BTC had a strong rise not only because of its demand and expectation, but also because marked a moment of institutionalizationIt even led the currency to reach an all-time high before the halving, something that had never happened before, so he believes it is positive that it entered a correction afterwards.
“My expectation for the cycle peak is $300,000, but it won’t happen this year,” said Ripio’s CEO. “At the beginning of this year, I thought it was going to happen very quickly, that everything was going to happen very fast, but luckily it stopped a bit; the longer it takes, the more it can develop,” he added.
The businessman considers that, If the rise is delayed over time, the multiples will be largeras solid foundations are being formed. “The most active part of the market will probably end up being next year or even in the worst case in 2026,” he projected.
In his view, one thing that is having an impact now is the general uncertainty surrounding risk assets. With the exception of companies linked to artificial intelligence (AI), he notes that stocks are not doing well and are performing worse than bitcoin. In his opinion, this is due to fears about whether the global economy will enter a recession or not.
Particularly in the cryptocurrency market, there is also uncertainty about whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the US presidential election. The candidates’ opinions on the ecosystem and their government program are very polarized. Until that is resolved, expects the market to be expectant.
He also adds that Many people are one step away from the market due to the cuts in interest rates expected for the United States. This is expected to occur in the decisions of the FOMC, the Federal Reserve (Fed) agency, the US central bank, on September 18, as well as in the coming months.
The specialist recalls that rate cuts stimulate market appetite and reduce the value of the dollar against other fiat currencies. Therefore, it seems crucial how it will continue, especially if there is a recessionary environment that puts headwinds on it.
“It is a time with many questions. I think that is what is causing it to move sideways. But the fundamentals, which are what matters in the long term, are super strong. We are in a time without expectations and without a strong narrative, but with a lot of productivity.”
Sebastian Serrano, founder of Ripio.
“If Trump wins it is positive for bitcoin, but if Harris wins it is negative”: Serrano
As an industry specialist, the head of Ripio maintains that The outcome of the US election will be key to Bitcoin’s bullish process“If Trump wins, it’s positive for bitcoin, but if Harris wins, it’s negative,” he exclaimed. Although, he clarified that this last possibility could only be short-term.
“Harris would exacerbate one of the problems that the United States has, which is that it is running a very large deficit,” he said. “They need to finance that and it ends up printing and devaluing all fiat currencies,” he added. In the long term, he stressed that “this increases the value of scarce assets like bitcoin” due to its differentiating essence.
Bitcoin has a limited decentralized emission that is automatically reduced every four years through the event called halving. This event will occur until 21 million BTC are mined, which favors its price increase due to demand. This is different from fiat money, which can be printed indefinitely by the government in power.
“In the long term, in economic fundamentals, while it is bad for the United States, it is good for bitcoin,” Serrano considered about Harris’s expected policy. He also highlighted that the government It is not in position to harm the purchase of stablecoinssince its issuers are among the main buyers of Treasury bonds.
“When the United States is losing Treasury buyers, it would be shooting itself in the foot to attack stablecoin issuers who are your main customers,” she insisted. Therefore, this is a key factor for the rise of bitcoin, beyond the fact that the Democratic Party, which Harris represents, does not identify itself as “pro-crypto.”
Stablecoins are crypto assets that maintain the same price as fiat currencies, mostly the USD. Therefore, their issuers generally hold Treasury bonds as collateral. In this way, they allow their users to stay away from the volatility of the cryptocurrency market until they have a better prospect. In this sense, their demand works as an indicator of capital that can enter BTC.
Serrano believes that If Harris wants to prove she is pro-crypto in government, she should change the head of the SECthe U.S. securities regulator. Gary Gensler, who heads the agency, blocked approval of bitcoin ETFs for years until a court ruled in a lawsuit that his behavior was unjustified.
Trump has promised to fire Gensler if he wins, as well as to maintain national reserves of bitcoin and turn the United States into a hub for the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Therefore, in the event of a victory on his part in the elections, he clarifies that the market reaction could be positive from the start.
“The market will continue to move sideways from now until the end of the year,” the industry entrepreneur sums up, while remaining bullish in the medium and long term.
