The bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency market is currently facing new challenges to rise in price.
“The recent war conflict between Israel and Iran has generated a new wave of uncertainty in global markets, significantly impacting the cryptocurrency ecosystem,” comments the analysis company Nodecharts. This is indicated in his report weekly published on October 3.
Specifies that Geopolitical tensions have caused the price of bitcoin to fall towards $60,000 (USD). This level, he clarifies, “is not only significant from a technical perspective, but also represents a psychological point for many investors.”
According to the analyst company, “if the conflict between Israel and Iran continues, volatility is likely to continue affecting the ‘crypto’ market.” “Risk aversion could lead investors to withdraw capital from more volatile assets such as bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, seeking refuge in investments considered safer,” he elaborates.
This view differs from specialists who warn that BTC could become uncorrelated with risk assets in a war escalation. “Geopolitical conflict could be positive for Bitcoin,” said trader Scott Melker. This is because, like gold, it has a scarce supply and decentralized mining that does not depend on an economy.
In any case, Nodecharts highlights that the proximity of the presidential elections in the United States, scheduled for November, could play a significant role in favor of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The reason for this is that, historically, Election years tend to favor positive performance in marketsat least until the elections are over.
This phenomenon is attributed to electoral uncertainty, which often prompts governments to implement policies that stimulate the economy and maintain investor confidence, he explains. “It is possible that this effect will extend to the cryptocurrency market, influencing the behavior of bitcoin in the coming months,” he says.
The analyst company details that this could positively impact the cryptocurrency market and offer an opportunity for a recovery in the price of bitcoin. In addition, the recent interest rate cuts, which began a phase of reductions, increased the capital available to the markets.
Meanwhile, “on-chain metrics indicate that the bitcoin market is at a critical point,” warns Nodecharts. According to his view, the inability to maintain key realized price levels, such as that of short-term investors, suggests weakness in the short term.
Bitcoin fell from the purchase prices of new investors
The realized price of short-term investors refers to the average purchase price of users who acquired their bitcoin in the last 155 days. This level is key for the market, given that when the price declines in this area, This group may be motivated to sell their holdings for fear of further decline.
At the time of this writing, bitcoin is trading below the realized price of short-term investors, which is around USD 62,000, as the graph shows. “It is necessary for the price to recover and remain above this level to consider bullish movements in the short term,” considers Nodecharts.
In addition, the realized price for between 1 and 3 months is also at USD 62,000, above the price at the time of this writing. “This reinforces the signal of weakness if it is not reversed,” mentions the analyst company. “It will be important to break this level upwards to consider a continuation of the bullish trend,” he adds.
As a positive point, it indicates that there are important support zones, such as the realized price between 1 week and 1 month. This is around USD 60,000, which makes it clear that it could provide stability and potentially reverse the bearish trend. Currently, as CriptoNoticias indicated, bitcoin is shown trying to sustain this price level.
Therefore, macroeconomic and geopolitical development is key to defining the direction of the market in this scenario.