Historical patterns are useful… until they aren’t.
Just because bitcoin doesn’t meet the wishes of its investors doesn’t mean it has failed.
I’ll open the umbrella before the criticism rains down: the title of this post is not a categorical statement.
It is not being stated that the bitcoin (BTC) bull market in this cycle has come to an end, but it is being suggested a hypothesis that deserves attention.
Although many prefer to cling to historical cycles as if they were unbreakable laws, we must not forget that bitcoin goes its own way. And it has already shown that it can break price models, such as when it fell below $20,000 in 2022 and 2023. Back then, what seemed impossible, happened.
Now, the common narrative among analysts (and one that I particularly share and defend) suggests that the fourth quarter of 2024 will be the bullish turning point for bitcoin, following the pattern seen in previous cycles.
But blindly trusting that history will always repeat itself, as if it were a dogma of faith that does not allow questioning, can be dangerous. Bitcoin has proven to be an asset that shatters expectations and, at this moment, it is valid to wonder if he will not break them once again.
Looking at what is happening, some signs could indicate that this bull market has already shown its best side.
For example, as CriptoNoticias reported at the time, bitcoin already set new all-time highs before the halving. This is true if considered nominally (because if the price is adjusted for inflation, BTC should rise to approximately $67,000 to mark a new all-time high). What if that was the peak of the current cycle, even if it was the first time something like that happened?
Furthermore, macroeconomic factors, with interest rates elevated (although they are gradually being reduced) and a growing global uncertainty (some even talk about World War III), are far from being the fertile ground that many expected for the takeoff of bitcoin.
It is also relevant to consider the new profile of investors in the market. What was once dominated by space enthusiasts and pioneers now has the presence of large financial institutions, largely thanks to the ETFs approved in January.
Institutions—in theory, at least—are not getting carried away by euphoria or panic, and that could be contributing to a slowdown in the traditional bull cycle.
As for the supercycle theory, many see it as the next big wave for bitcoin, a rally without a significant correction. However, this assumes that the demand for bitcoin will always be there, ready to propel it to new heights. Everything is very nice, but… This demand is not guaranteed.
It is not that the bull market is completely ruled out, but it cannot be assumed that it will come inevitably either. Historical Patterns Are Useful Until They Aren’tand maybe this is one of those moments where the market decides to do something different.
Of course, this does not mean that bitcoin has lost its long-term appeal. Its fundamentals remain intact: it is censorship-resistant, secure, scarce, decentralized, and its adoption continues to grow.
But, the price does not always reflect these fundamentals immediately. So while many expect explosive growth, it is also necessary to be prepared for the possibility that this cycle may not follow the “rules.”
What if this bull market is over, what do we do?
If this bull market is already over, it is no cause for concern. First of all, we must remember that does not mean that Bitcoin has failed. After all, the goal of bitcoin is not to rise in price – even if it has that property in the long term – but to be “a peer-to-peer electronic cash system,” as defined by its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.
Besides, If this bull market was over, it would be an opportunity. Because while the price does not skyrocket, there is time to accumulate more BTC.
Of course, that means have a clear strategy in mind (for example, DCA) and not be carried away by emotions or the temptation to sell at a low price the asset that “did not deliver what it promised” (as if bitcoin had promised something).
Investors who understand the value of bitcoin know that price drops are not a curse, but a blessing in disguise. Every satoshi accumulated right now is an investment in a future where bitcoin will resume its inevitable rise.
In the end, if this bull market is already over, that only means more opportunities to continue adding sats at a more attractive price.
The following phrase is attributed to Nathan Rothschild:
“When you see blood running through the streets, it’s time to buy property.”
Nathan Rothschild, businessman, banker and politician.
Paraphrasing it, we can think that When we see “blood” in the market, it is time to buy bitcoin.
True bitcoiners know this: bitcoin’s value is not measured only by its price peaks, but by its ability to endure, grow, and challenge the traditional financial system. So, if bitcoin doesn’t go up immediately, just offers more time to strengthen the position before the next explosive and bullish cycle arrives. And sooner or later it will come.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article belong to its author and do not necessarily reflect those of CriptoNoticias. The author’s opinion is for informational purposes and under no circumstances constitutes an investment recommendation or financial advice.
