Us Election: Will Trump be able to defeat Kamala Harris? Know what the betting market is saying, the whole game has changed

There are less than three weeks left for the US Presidential elections. Both Kamala Harris and Donald are claiming their respective victories. Meanwhile, many opinion polls have also come out, in which a tough contest is being seen between Trump and Harris. But what is the betting market saying? The betting market is considered quite reliable in predicting American elections. Because people invest money in it.

In the earlier survey it was believed that Harris was slightly ahead of Trump. But now the whole game seems to be changing. According to Polymarket, as of October 15, former President Trump’s chances of winning were up to 60%. Popular betting platform PredictIt claimed that people are betting more on Trump’s victory. Now the probability of Trump winning is 54%, while the probability of Harris winning is 49%. This is the first time since July that Harris is getting the support of less than 50% of the people.

Know what estimates are
Most of the betting platforms are seeing Trump winning. Betfair has estimated the probability of Trump’s victory at around 58% while Kalshi has estimated it at 57%. PredictIt is 54% and Smarket has considered the probability of Trump’s victory to be 58%. If we do a poll of polls, we will find that Trump’s chances of winning are more than 57%. At the end of September it was around 48%. But since then there has been tremendous change.

The story of betting market is different
According to the National Survey Tracker of New York Times, 49% voters are planning to vote for Kamala Harris while only 47% votes are in support of Trump. Whereas the speculative market is telling the exact opposite story. Thomas Miller, professor of data science at Northwestern University, told Fortune that betting portals make accurate predictions because people have money invested in them. Miller himself runs a site that predicts the Electoral College outcome based on PredictIt contract prices. This also shows that Trump is winning with a huge majority.

Who is ahead in Trump-Harris race?

– Polymarket: Trump 60%, Harris 40%

– PredictIt: Trump 54%, Harris 49%

– Betfair: Trump 58%, Harris 42%

– Kalshi: Trump 57%, Harris 43%

– Markets: Trump 58%, Harris 42%

Tags: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, us elections, US Presidential Election 2024