Crypto Market

Cryptocurrencies gain new space in elections with predictive markets

In the framework of the presidential elections that will be held in the United States next week, prediction markets based on blockchain platforms and with bets on cryptocurrencies are gaining important space, already being a particular characteristic of the current campaign.

Until now, the Polymarket platform, has been the great protagonist. However, Robinhood and Kalshi This week they announced their own platforms to compete in the predictions market.

A few days before the elections between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the Kalshi prediction market began to accept deposits in the USDC stablecoin. The goal of using the stablecoin is for its customers to be able to move money faster and more economically, challenging the popularity that Polymarket has gained during this 2024 election cycle.

This is a significant development for the Kalshi company, considering that just last month it achieved a major legal victory over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This, after a federal judge ruled that the platform I could move on with its plans to launch election markets in the US.

A similar plan launched the online trading platform Robinhood, which also this week opened the possibility for users to speculate on the US presidential vote. Through Robinhood Derivatives, the platform offers two contracts that allow traders speculate on who will win the election.

The contracts are offered by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated futures broker, and are focused exclusively on the US. Bettors will be able to trade US election contracts 24/7 until Election Day. The contract will be officially resolved on January 7 and payments will be made one day later. explains the trading platform.

In this way, the Robinhood and Kalshi initiatives have emerged to capitalize the great interest for predictions about the presidential elections in the United States, an area where Polymarket rose to prominence, becoming the main active market for speculating on the US presidential outcome.

After being tied, the bets give Donald Trump the winner. Source: Polymarket.

Predictive markets will play an important role in politics

Currently, the tokenized bet on Polymarket, between Trump and Harris, surpasses USD 2,766 million, with Trump as the clear favorite.

The bet figure points to substantial growth, especially surpassing USD 1 billion earlier this month. The monthly trading volume on the platform already exceeds USD 2,000 million, three times more than in Septemberwhile the number of users has grown above 200,000 for the first time in its history.

Political prediction platforms, which allow users to bet on the results of electoral contests, have existed for decades. Even those that use cryptocurrencies were used in the 2020 election campaign, when Donald Trump and Joe Biden competed.

At that time Polymarket, Augur (a decentralized platform on Ethereum) and Predict It they gave something to talk about, giving Biden the winner -as it happened in reality-. As CriptoNoticias reported, the fight for the White House was already beginning to take place beyond the polls and television debates.

Even so, they did not gain popularity which this time Polymarket has obtained. The site recently hired survey guru Nate Silver as an advisor. Although there are many questions about its future and the possible changes that may be generated in these markets. The platform is currently seeking funding and plans to issue its own token.

Maybe it’s a way to protect yourself with the arrival of new competitors They have already begun to enter the scene and predict a new political dynamic where these types of platforms are expected to play a fundamental role.

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