The bitcoiner electorate generally prefers a victory for Donald Trump.
A “selling the news” scenario would not be unusual, regardless of who the winner is.
Today, November 5, the presidential elections are held in the United States.
If the vote count advances quickly and the difference between both candidates is wide, tonight it could be known which of the two main candidates – Donald Trump (Republican) or Kamala Harris (Democrat) – will be the next president of that nation.
Bitcoin (BTC) is no stranger to what happens with the politics and economy of the world’s main financial power. As CriptoNoticias has been reporting, cryptocurrencies took a key place in the electoral campaigns of both candidates.
Even so, Donald Trump seems to have been the one who most convinced the bitcoiner electoratewith proposals such as the creation of a strategic national reserve in BTC or regulations that favor cryptocurrency mining.
At the time of writing, according to data from the betting platform PolymarketTrump has an advantage over Harris:
Consulted by this information portal, Matías Partan analyst at the Bitget exchange, anticipated that bitcoin will experience high volatility, regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris win the elections.
Part explains that, in his opinion, “market behavior will be more influenced by macroeconomic factors and monetary policy decisions.” This specialist adds:
«For bitcoin to reach new highs, it is crucial that the Federal Reserve maintain or reduce interest rates, ideally to a range between 4.5% and 4.0%, and that inflation is controlled below 3%. Furthermore, an improvement in global liquidity and a decrease in investors’ risk aversion could act as positive catalysts.
Matías Part, Bitget analyst.
In addition to all this, Part maintains that “the DXY index [que mide la fortaleza del dólar estadounidense] will also play an important role; A drop below 100 could increase interest in risk assets like bitcoin. Finally, he says, “global events such as economic stability in China and the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East will continue to be determinants of cryptocurrency market sentiment.”
He also spoke about it Sebastian Serranoco-founder of the Ripio exchange. Serrano shared with us an extensive and detailed analysis on the topic. Among other things, the Argentine businessman points out: «It is evident that what the ecosystem looked at the most during the campaign was the position that each candidate had regarding the use and regulation of cryptocurrencies, both at the individual level and even by the State itself. ».
The leader of Ripio mentions that “Trump, who during his 2017-2021 presidency had unfavorable comments or belittled the scope of cryptocurrencies, in this new campaign on the contrary even talked about bitcoin as a tool to obtain performance at the state level and “mentioned the possibility of using crypto funds confiscated for crimes.”
Adds Sebastián Serrano:
At a macro level, Trump and the Republicans are moving towards a less regulated economy with lower taxes, as evidenced by the promise to expand his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which would lower the corporate tax from 21% to 15%. . This type of scenario usually favors the leading markets for assets, goods, products and services with higher values, as well as large energy, manufacturing and financial companies. Inspired by these types of possibilities, corporations and businessmen were giving massive support to Trump, starting with Elon Musk, who undoubtedly must also have had weight in the former president’s change of outlook towards cryptocurrencies.
Sebastián Serrano, founder of Ripio.
Instead, the businessman highlights the differences of the Democratic candidate, Harris. He explains that “a continuity of fiscal stimulus and economic assistance policies is expected, which always generates challenges in terms of inflation. At the same time, within the Democratic program there is an emphasis on the transition towards renewable energies and more sustainable economies, which is a concern of a large part of the crypto ecosystem and the technology sector as well.
Still, not everything would be negative for bitcoin if Harris wins. Serrano says that “proposals such as increasing minimum wages and expanding access to services could generate in the general population a flow of available money that on previous occasions (such as with stimuli during the pandemic) allowed many Americans to begin invest”.
Consulted by CriptoNoticias, Tania Lea He gave his opinion on the subject. She is the director of Azteco, a platform that allows you to buy bitcoin in stores or online.
Lea mentions that “these events generate a lot of expectation, but the market message is that if Trump wins, the expectation is that bitcoin value will rise, and if Harris wins, it will fall.” The businesswoman emphasizes the fact that this “is not a personal opinion, but a reflection of what is happening in the market” since “people decide the market value based on their own perceptions.”
Despite the volatility that BTC may show in the coming hours or days, Lea invites us to consider the trend of the digital currency in the long term:
«Beyond the elections, the trend of bitcoin as a long-term store of value is bullish. The most important thing is to remember to invest consciously, or use it for everyday use of sending, saving or spending in small amounts.
Tania Lea, director of Azteco.
María Fernanda JuppetCEO of the CryptoMKT exchange, believes that in the short term bitcoin will behave with high volatility. She explains that “elections in the United States usually generate important movements in the financial markets, and bitcoin is no exception. “As a decentralized asset, bitcoin acts as a refuge against uncertainty, but the election result could influence its behavior in the short term.”
For Juppet, “in a scenario where Donald Trump wins, his less regulatory and economic stimulus-oriented approach is likely to favor risk assets, including bitcoin. However, volatility could increase, given its history of tensions with financial institutions and lack of a clear position on cryptocurrencies. Given this, it is possible that more investors will turn to bitcoin as a refuge to mitigate risks.
Instead, the businesswoman maintains that “if Kamala Harris assumes the presidency, it is expected that the market will anticipate stricter regulation in the financial and crypto sector. “This could initially generate some downward pressure on the price of bitcoin, but clear and consistent regulation can also stabilize the ecosystem and strengthen confidence in the medium and long term.”
In any case, with one president or another in the White House, bitcoin will continue to be bitcoin. This is how the CEO of CryptoMKT expresses it:
«Regardless of the winner, bitcoin will continue to be an attractive alternative in times of uncertainty. We anticipate a period of volatility in the days following the election, especially if signs of economic instability emerge. At CryptoMKT we maintain constant monitoring of the markets and recommend operating with diversified strategies, always taking into account the risks inherent to the cryptocurrency market.
María Fernanda Juppet, CEO of CryptoMKT.
But not everyone believes that, yes or yes, a Trump victory will push bitcoin up. Pedro Gutierrezgeneral director for Latin America at Coinex, was interviewed by journalist Bárbara Distéfano during the most recent edition of LABITCONF. There, Gutiérrez said that a scenario of selling the news could occur. If that happened, “it would be very likely that, whoever wins, the price will go down a little,” he explains. Even so, Gutiérrez in the long term believes that “it will be better for Trump than bitcoin.”
On the other hand, the influencer Norberto Giudice (known on YouTube and social networks as “Cryptonorber”), also interviewed during LABITCONF by CriptoNoticias, said that “if Trump wins and, furthermore, if on November 7 the Fed lowers the interest rate by a quarter of a point, then we could talk of a super cycle where bitcoin would even go close to $200,000.
It is worth clarifying that this is a medium-term prediction. It does not mean that BTC will skyrocket to that figure in the next few hours, but throughout the entire ongoing bullish cycle.
On the other hand, for Giudice, “if Kamala wins there will be a drop and then it would rise,” although that rise could, perhaps, be of smaller proportions than what Trump would have if he were president.
Clarification: This article is written for informational purposes. It does not constitute an investment recommendation or financial advice. Each investor is responsible for conducting his or her own research.