When asked to rank the greatest threats to their supply chains, companies in a survey conducted by several associations on the subject of supply chains clearly ranked “geopolitical conflicts” (82%) in first place, ahead of the threat of cybercrime (8%) and natural disasters (6%). to. There is a particular need for discussion with the largest non-European trading partners, the USA and China: with a view to the period after the US presidential election, increasing trade policy tensions with Europe’s most important ally are expected. Almost a third (31%) of the companies surveyed fear that the USA will go it alone with general import tariffs and an “America First” approach, while another 59% believe that more selective trade barriers are likely. Only 6% expect a move away from protectionism and only 4% believe in a return to a cooperative, multilateral trading order.
The companies are also seeking clarification with their trading partner China. Two out of three companies (64%) say that the EU needs to act more confidently towards the second largest economy because of heavily subsidized export products. However, turning away from China is not an alternative, as the enormous interconnection shows: By far the majority of companies surveyed (75%) said that China is currently “very important” (44%) or “important” to them compared to other regions (31%), followed by Asia excluding China with 30% and 36% approval. The USA comes well behind in third place with values of 18% (“very important”) and 35% (“important”).
For those surveyed, there will be no change in the close ties with China in the future. In the “coming years” it is expected that the importance of China’s Asian neighbors will catch up. However, the People’s Republic will remain the most important trading partner for the majority.