When talking about bitcoin (BTC) and black swans, one thinks of pandemics, financial collapses or asteroids falling on Wall Street.
But… How about a potential black swan with blonde hair and 78 years old? Yes, we are talking about Donald Trump, the man who could have such an unexpected and decisive impact on the bitcoin market, not only because of what he says or does, but because something as basic as your mortality.
It’s funny how history plays with our expectations. Trump, who once called Bitcoin “a scam based on thin air,” has gone on to promise a pro-bitcoin agenda that could make any maximalist blush with pride.
It talks about eliminating regulatory barriers, encouraging technological innovation, promoting cryptocurrency mining and creating a strategic national reserve in bitcoin. Basically, has written the love letter that many bitcoiners didn’t know they wanted to receive.
But here’s the twist: Trump is 78 years oldand although his speeches are as energetic as a teen rally at a Taylor Swift concert, the reality of biology is undeniable. What happens if your health plays tricks on you and you fail to keep your promises?
The orange swan in the room
Trump’s presidency would be a rollercoaster in itself, but when we add the element “advanced age,” the result is an explosive cocktail. Trump is not exactly an example of health: Your diet seems sponsored by fast food chains, your overweight has been the subject of public debate, and it is well known that physical exercise It’s not part of your daily routine.
Although their energetic expressions may deceive, the possibility of serious illness, or even death, is a variable that cannot be ignored.
For bitcoin, the impact of something as unfortunate as Trump’s death could go in two directions: a sharp increase in its demand as a haven of value, or a crash if investors decide it’s better to hide under the blanket of the dollar or gold.
In the opinion of the editor of this article, option 2 would be the most likely. After all, nothing scares markets more than political uncertainty.
This is where the real “black swan” rears its head. Trump’s promises to the cryptocurrency industry sound great, but what if whoever succeeds him, Mike Pence, isn’t as enthusiastic about the idea of a decentralized future?
Let us not forget that a good part of the economic policies depend on the leader in office (and can vary greatly, even if they are from the same party).
An administration that decides to make a 180-degree turn could deal a brutal blow to the market, which would not only affect the price of BTC, but also its narrative as a refuge in uncertain times.
Bitcoin: resilient but not immune
Yet, bitcoin has an advantage that Trump does not: You don’t need a political campaign or annual medical checkups to demonstrate your resilience. It was designed precisely to resist chaoswhether it is an economic collapse or a fight in X between Elon Musk and a user who criticizes dogecoin (DOGE).
However, Trump’s age and lifestyle habits are an uncomfortable reminder that, as decentralized as bitcoin is, its price still responds to the emotional swings of global markets.
In the case of a black swan like this, investors are the ones who will decide whether they see it as a crisis or an opportunity to strengthen their narrative.
Maybe we’re betting too much
The lesson here is that no bitcoiner should trust a politician too mucheven if it promises less regulation, more innovation or the purchase of 1 million BTC for state coffers.
After all, Trump is as unpredictable as bitcoin’s movements on a day of sell-offs.
In the meantime, the community can continue to prepare for the unexpected, because if history has taught us anything, it is that black swans always arrive when we least expect them. And sometimes, as in this potential case, they can come in a suit, blonde hair, red tie and orange skin.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article belong to its author and do not necessarily reflect those of CriptoNoticias. The author’s opinion is for informational purposes and under no circumstances constitutes an investment recommendation or financial advice.