How can a bitcoin reserve benefit the United States?

The US public debt, which has already exceeded $35 trillion, represents a threat to the stability of financial markets due to its rapid growth. In this context, bitcoin (BTC) has emerged as an increasingly relevant player in traditional finance, especially following the commitment of the newly elected President Donald Trump to establish a strategic reserve of the strongest digital currency on the market.

The proposal to include bitcoin as part of the United States treasury unleashed a kind of fever to follow the model that El Salvador already implements from the hand of Nayib Bukele. So the states of Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas and others announced legislation to have a reserve of the digital currency. And the same is happening in countries like Russia, Japan and Brazil.

Accordingly, the question that remains in the air is: would a strategic reserve of bitcoin for the United States really benefit the country economically? The answer may take a long time to know. This is because it is a complex process that requires considering a wide range of factors, many of which are uncertain and subject to change, such as the approval of laws or macroeconomic factors. Therefore, it is likely to take several years before a clear and complete view of the impacts of this measure can be had.

However, Matthew Sigel, director of digital asset research at VanEck, has an idea how A stockpile of bitcoin could impact the growing US national debt. So, according to the analyst’s calculations, it will be in 2025 when the United States Treasury will begin purchasing 1 million bitcoins over a five-year period at an average price of $250,000 for each coin.

This is in line with the proposal that Senator Cynthia Lummis presented last November when she proposed that the United States sell part of its gold reserves to finance the purchase of 1 million bitcoin, which represents approximately 5% of the total supply of BTC in circulation.

In any case, in Sigel’s hypothetical scenario, the United States debt would grow at an annual rate of 5%. This means that the figure would reach a total of approximately 120 billion by 2049.

At the same time, Sigel estimates that bitcoin’s annual growth will be 25% going forward, a much more modest figure compared to the 146% performance that the digital currency experienced in the last 12 months. So with a reserve with 1 million BTC, the value of this treasure would reach $50 trillion by 2049, which would represent more than 44.4% of the projected national debt.

Under this argument, Sigel gives his perspective of how it is that bitcoin can serve as an effective counterweight to the growing US fiscal deficitstrengthening the country’s economic security.

A treasure in bitcoin, who really benefits?

Who really benefits from a bitcoin reserve for the United States? That is the question asked by Venezuelan economist Daniel Arraez, who has followed the evolution of bitcoin since its first days in 2012. He is concerned about the regulatory ambiguity with which the US government has treated the digital currency, defining it in a convenient way. as money on some occasions, but also as merchandise or value on others, depending on the government agency in charge.

Arraez recalls the successful experiment of El Salvador, which adopted bitcoin as legal tender, managing to attract foreign capital and position itself as a case study for the region. However, it highlights a crucial difference, which is the fact that the Central American country does not issue the world reserve currency, as the United States does.

In that sense, for Arraez, the intention behind a US bitcoin reserve could be strategic, aiming to withdraw a significant portion of BTC from the marketwith the aim of strengthening or recovering the global hegemony of the dollar.

«For them [ Estados Unidos]it’s a win-win situation. Whether due to the appreciation of bitcoin or its circulation in global markets, any result is beneficial for them at a macroeconomic level. At an individual level, the scarcity nature of bitcoin is going to be felt much more, and what we are seeing today about the bitcoin rally is a preview of the price action that we can expect if this reserve is consolidated in the United States.

Daniel Arráez, Venezuelan bitcoiner and economist.

This duality, according to the Venezuelan bitcoiner, represents a macroeconomic advantage for the country, although at an individual level, it could intensify the scarcity of bitcoin, further putting pressure on its price, as has recently begun to be observed.

Arraez also warns about how premature it may be to make any definitive prediction about the profits or losses derived from this bitcoin reserve without fully knowing the policies and mechanisms that will accompany it. “It is too early to venture into forecasts without more details about how this reserve will work and what other measures will be implemented,” he concludes.

Therefore, the economist invites a deeper reflection on the cryptocurrency policy that the United States could implement, suggesting that, beyond the initial euphoria, it is crucial to examine who the true beneficiaries of such decisions are in the long term.

The adoption of a strategic bitcoin reserve by the United States could be seen as a recognition of the growing importance of the digital currency in the global financial landscape, but also could trigger a new era of monetary policies where decentralization and technological innovation play a more crucial role. In the meantime, the bitcoin community is keeping an eye on how these policies develop, as the decisions made have the power to shape the economic future of the United States and the world for decades to come.