Are they going back from Syria or not? Middle East analysts have been asking the same question about Russian troops for the past several days.
Open source investigators looking at satellite images and online air traffic tracking have found significant moves by Russia at its long-held Syrian bases since the overthrow of its ally Syrian dictator Bashar Assad’s regime nearly two weeks ago. They have seen combat helicopters and long-range S-400 air defense systems being dismantled for the journey, people with suitcases waiting to leave and large cargo planes being loaded.
Additionally, Russian Navy ships left their Syrian port on 11 December, two days before the fall of the Assad regime.
Russian officer has refused Their troops are leaving Syria and It was reported that they were talking With the rebel opposition group that led the offensive that overthrew the Assad regime and which is now setting up Syria’s transitional government.
Russia has two significant military bases in Syria: the Tartus naval base, established in 1971, and an air base in Hmeimim, established in 2015.
Tartus is Russia’s only formal naval base outside the former Soviet zone and the Russian presence there was increased in advance of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine to “counter, deter and monitor any NATO operations in the Mediterranean Sea”. . Was Noted recently.
Hmeimim is used as a logistics and staging post for Russian activities in Africa and came under Russian control shortly after Russia entered the Syrian Civil War. Russia helped Assad suppress anti-government rebels, and Russian air power likely turned the war in Assad’s favor. But since mid-December, the same people the Russians once bombed have been in charge of Syria.
Nanar Hawach, senior Syria analyst at the think tank Crisis Group, told DW that so far, both HTS and Russia have been very pragmatic and are negotiating.
“At present, Russia is working under the protection of HTS, HTS forces are protecting Russian convoys going to the naval base and the airport,” he said. “But we must also keep in mind that Russia played a very prominent and important role in the fight against HTS.”
This makes Russia’s future military presence in Syria potentially problematic. Russia was transferring air-defense systems and other advanced weapons from Syria to bases under its control in Libya wall street journal The report was made on Tuesday, citing unnamed US and Libyan officials.
Going to Libya?
Analysts point to indicators such as the removal of valuable military hardware from Syria, Russia’s suspension of wheat exports to Syria – in previous years, it has been Syria’s main supplier – and HTS’s rejection of Russian offers of humanitarian aid. He also says wherever the Russian naval ships from Tartus ultimately land will be an important indicator of whether they will stay in Libya or not – especially if they head toward the Libyan port of Tobruk.
For now, it’s all just speculation, according to Jalel Harchaoui, a political scientist and Libya expert at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies, or RUSI, in Britain.
Whether the Russians stay in Syria or go, there are some undeniable facts that will change the way they operate in Syria, he told DW.
“They will never be able to live with the same level of comfort, security and assurance as before,” Harchaoui said. “They’re going to have trouble guaranteeing their own logistics, electricity, water, food. They also know that when you run a [foreign] You need a certain friendliness from the community and state around you in terms of sharing intelligence. All that is lost now.”
Nothing is clear yet, agreed Wolfram Lacher, a senior associate and expert on Libya at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
“As far as I can tell, we are not yet seeing any direct movement between Syrian bases and Libya,” he said. “But, obviously, as Syrian bases become more precarious, Libya’s importance increases.”
Lacher and Harchaoui pointed out that Libya was already becoming more important to Russia.
In 2024, British newspaper Wire The report said Russia has strengthened runway and perimeter security at Libyan airports, built new structures and delivered weapons.
threat to nato
Since 2014, Libya has been divided into two, with opposing governments located in the east and west of the country. The United Nations-backed administration known as the Government of National Unity, or GNU, is in the west, and its rival, known as the House of Representatives, is based in Tobruk in the east. The latter is backed by former warlord-turned-politician Khalifa Haftar, who controls various armed groups in the region.
Several times over the past decade, each government tried – and failed – to wrest control from the other, but the conflict is currently at a stalemate, resulting in unstable security.
“Over the past few years, those Libyan factions have been locked in a stalemate that has kept their country largely free from major conflict, but that has largely been dependent on the two foreign powers with significant military forces on the ground, Russia and Dependent on Türkiye.” Frederick Wehre, a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote last week,
“The fall of Assad… could tip this delicate balance,” he suggested, arguing that Libya’s stalled conflict could potentially escalate into conflict similar to Syria’s .
It may depend on Russia’s next move. If Russia convinces Haftar to establish a more permanent base in Libya, it would pose a major challenge to NATO.
“The Russians have wanted a naval base in Libya for many years, and the main policy objective of the Americans in Libya for the last two years has been to prevent it,” Lacher said. “Until now Haftar has always tried to balance different foreign supporters against each other to avoid becoming dependent on just one.”
“So the current events have put Haftar in a very difficult position,” Lacher said.
Harchaoui said he believed it was too early to tell what would happen but he presented two possible scenarios. For one thing, the Russians remain in Syria, but everything becomes more inconvenient, expensive and laborious for them, he said.
“They just cover the costs, but it’s still business as usual,” he told DW.
In the second scenario, Haftar’s permission for Russia to firmly establish itself in Libya will gradually become apparent. In that situation, some forces – for example, in NATO – that oppose Russian incursions into Libya could conduct sabotage missions or even train fighters opposed to Haftar.
Harchaoui concluded, “It will be gradual, a soft inflection point. It won’t be fireworks.” “But it’s very possible that then we look back and go, yes, Haftar made a mistake by saying yes to the Russians and, yes, it all started with the fall of Assad.”
Edited by: Sean M. Sinico