What next for Romania after the recent election chaos? – DW – 12/20/2024

As has so often been the case since the overthrow of communism 35 years ago, Romania is currently teetering between the tragic and the macabre.

It is simultaneously sad and disgusting that a massive backlog of reforms and a deep distrust of politicians have propelled extreme right-wing, pro-Russian fraudsters to major electoral successes in recent weeks.

Equally sad and disgusting is the fact that the country’s traditional political elite seems unwilling to learn anything from this situation.

Talks are underway on alliance

Following the cancellation of the parliamentary elections on 1 December and the first round of presidential elections in late November on 6 December, a large “pro-European coalition” of all mainstream democratic parties and representatives began discussing the formation of a government.

However, horse-trading over positions and power struggles over minor matters are taking priority over the fundamental reforms that Romania needs.

tiktok candidate

The result of the canceled first round of the presidential election was a major shock: Calin Georgescu, a far-right independent with radical Christian conservative, pro-Russian, esoteric views who was largely unknown in Romania before the election, came out. Nowhere to win the election.

Georgescu condemns anything “Western” as harmful, glorifies the Romanian fascists of the interwar years, and has called for Romania’s withdrawal from both the EU and NATO.

Shortly before the election, Georgescu’s videos suddenly spread like wildfire on TikTok, which is why he is often described as the “TikTok” candidate.

surprise election cancellation

The Constitutional Court initially declared the result of the first round legal, but surprisingly annulled it two days before the vote was to be held on 8 December.

The decision was based on documents published by secret services, which stated that Georgescu had received, among other things, massive financial and logistical support from a Romanian IT specialist to ensure that his videos were more widely distributed. To be shared with.

He also claimed that a “state player” – an indirect reference to Russia – helped raise Georgescu’s profile on social media and hacked the IT infrastructure of Romania’s electoral authority.

weak evidence, unprofessional work

The evidence that has been made public is weak. Furthermore, the documents give the impression that the work of the Romanian secret services is shoddy and unprofessional.

In fact, their completely opaque working practices have been a problem for decades. Although prescribed by law, there is no real parliamentary oversight of their work, and reports on the services’ activities are provided either very late or not at all.

The Romanian Directorate for the Investigation of Organized Crime and Terrorism is currently investigating Georgescu, among other things, to determine whether he illegally financed his electoral campaign.

The European Union has also started formal proceedings against TikTok to determine whether it influenced the election result.

Role of the Constitutional Court

The Romanian public is also deeply divided over the cancellation of the election. Many citizens and some political parties see this as a contempt of the democratic will of the people.

The Constitutional Court of Romania has a reputation in Romania for being politically dependent and weak in terms of the expertise of some of its members.

In October, it excluded far-right presidential candidate Diana Sosoka – but not other far-right candidates – from the election.

It is considered an open secret in Bucharest that with this decision, the largest party in the government, the Social Democrats, hoped to ensure that its man, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, went ahead as favorite against extremist leader George Simeone. Will increase. The right-wing Coalition for the Romanian Union (AUR), which was seen as having little chance of winning.

Don’t want a pro-reform party in the alliance?

Nominal pro-European parties got a majority in the parliamentary elections held on 1 December. These include the Social Democrats (PSD), the National Liberals (PNL), the progressive-liberal Save Romania Union (USR), and the National-Conservative Democratic Alliance. Of the Hungarians in Romania (UDMR).

However, three far-right parties – including the AU – now hold more than a third of the seats in both houses of parliament.

Following the election, the remaining mainstream parties and 19 mandatory legislators for the country’s national minorities agreed to form a “pro-European coalition” and not cooperate with extreme right-wing parties.

However, the progressive-liberal USR, the only seriously pro-reform party in Romania, does not appear to be welcome in this coalition. It has not been invited to some negotiations, and its demands for a reform program supported by the corresponding draft budget have so far been ignored.

The USR also decided not to participate in the round of talks where positions were filled before any government program was agreed upon. When a program of reforms was eventually presented, USR leader Elena Lasconi criticized it as a repetition of previous unfulfilled promises.

Because USR members have said they do not want to just be a fig leaf, it is possible that the party will not actually join the coalition.

Was the coup planned?

But these are not the only tragic and gruesome episodes currently playing out in Romania.

The second is a coup attempt that was allegedly planned by a group linked to Horatiu Potra, a former member of the French Foreign Legion.

For a long time, Potra led a group of mercenaries in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and is said to be responsible for serious war crimes committed there. He is also considered a supporter of Georgescu and is believed to have met with him after the first round of the presidential election.

On 8 December, the day the presidential vote was to take place, Potra and several others were arrested as they were traveling to Bucharest by car with weapons, military equipment and a large sum of money.

Officials initially spoke of a “planned coup”. However, it is now being said that Potra wanted to demonstrate public unrest. He was arrested after an anonymous call was made to emergency services.

It is unclear why authorities did not act sooner against Potra, who has since been released from jail.

Silence from Rashtrapati Bhavan

During all this, President Klaus Iohannis appears to have been out in the field. Despite the country’s extremely difficult political situation, he keeps a low profile, posting short Facebook messages once every six days.

It is unclear when new presidential elections will be held. At the same time, the incidents related to the canceled first round of presidential elections are still to be investigated.

In short, the way forward for Romania is quite clear.

This article was originally published in German.