What happened to the bitcoin Christmas rally?

The behavior of bitcoin (BTC) in the past is often used to try to anticipate future behavior.

This is why many investors, traders and market analysts expected that the digital currency created by Satoshi Nakamoto had a bullish rally that would take her to new heights, precisely for these dates.

The trader who identifies himself on social network X as “Mister Crypto” had written on December 11: «Bitcoin always goes parabolic around Christmas in halving years. This time it will not be different.

Maybe bitcoin will surprise us tomorrow, but at least as of this writing, no Christmas rally is happening. On the contrary, bitcoin is closer to $90,000 than its all-time high of $108,000.

Another who was convinced that in 2024 the “Santa Claus rally” would happen again was the one who identifies himself on social networks as CryptoRover. Anyway, This specialist sets the date for “after Christmas” so his prediction could still come true.

It was December 17 when Crypto Rover wrote in X:

THE CHRISTMAS RALLY FOR BITCOIN IS COMING! 🚀 Bitcoin always goes parabolic after Christmas. ARE YOU READY?

Crypto Rover, trader.

Taking into account the temporality mentioned by Crypto Rover we could think that the Christmas rally still has a chance to materialize. After all, if bitcoin knows anything, it is surprising with its unpredictable movements.

But, at the moment this is not what is happening. AND Several factors have combined to produce the drop in price of bitcoin during the last week.

First of all, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that in 2025 only two interest rate cuts are planned. This fell like a bucket of cold water for investors and traders, who expected much more drastic announcements.

And what do the Fed’s interest rates have to do with the price of BTC? As explained in the Cryptopedia – educational section of CriptoNoticias – When dollar interest rates are low, it is cheaper to borrow money. This money can then be put into speculative assets such as bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

Besideswhen interest rates are low, Treasury bond yields are also lowso investors look for more volatile assets to obtain higher profits. In this context, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies benefit.

On the other hand, the president of the FedJerome Powell explained on December 18 that the organization he heads cannot own bitcoin. This appears to directly impact President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to establish a strategic national reserve in BTC.

It is worth clarifying that Powell is not the bad guy for saying this. He is simply explaining what the laws in the United States state. It means, then, that there must be a legislative modification (either through Congress or by presidential decree) so that Trump can fulfill his promises.

In any case, the fact of knowing that Trump will not have such an easy path to create his promised strategic reserve in BTC has demotivated investors, who massively executed sell orders causing the price of BTC to plummet.

Every drop is a buying opportunity

Amid fluctuations and apparent disappointments, market enthusiasts and strategists should not lose hope. Expectations for next year remain bullish for bitcoin. Those who consider investments with a medium and long-term perspective have no reason to fear, even in the face of momentary drops in the price of the asset.

CriptoNoticias has reported several of these bullish predictions. For example, the analysis and investment firm, Fundstrat believes that bitcoin will reach $200,000 in 2025. Analysts from the financial company Bernstein think the same.

Furthermore, predictive markets show that there are high chances (or at least high expectations) that at least one of the 7 largest companies in the world (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla) buy bitcoin in 2025. If this were to happen, and any of these companies decided to follow a MicroStrategy-style accumulation strategy, it would be tremendously bullish for bitcoin.

Despite the expected 2024 Christmas rally not having materialized (yet), and with an immediate context that could seem discouraging, the volatile nature of bitcoin suggests that there is still potential for an increase in its value. These swings, far from being merely negative, offer opportunities for astute investors who know when the time is right to accumulate more assets.

One strategy for situations like this is Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA). This technique involves investing a fixed amount in bitcoin at regular intervals, regardless of its price. This way, investors can mitigate the risks associated with market volatility and potentially build a more significant position over time.

The history of bitcoin has shown that, beyond short-term corrections, its general trend has been upward. Investors who maintain a long-term view and do not get carried away by market emotions tend to benefit the most.

Therefore, looking ahead, there is little doubt that bitcoin will continue its upward trajectory. The key is to stay informed, be patient and take advantage of the opportunities that the market offers, especially when it seems to go against general sentiment.

So even if Christmas 2024 doesn’t bring the rally many expected, the future of bitcoin is still bright (plus, look at how much bitcoin has risen this year and stop complaining!).

Prudent, long-term investment strategies such as DCA, coupled with constant market monitoring and informed analysis, can prepare investors to make the most of the upcoming opportunities that are sure to emerge in 2025.

Merry christmas! 😀

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article belong to its author and do not necessarily reflect those of CriptoNoticias. The author’s opinion is for informational purposes and under no circumstances constitutes an investment recommendation or financial advice.