Belarus, Bolivia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda and Uzbekistan will join the BRICS, as confirmed a few days ago by the Russian presidential advisor, Yury Ushakov.
According to the information disseminated by the Russian agency Tass, these 9 countries will officially acquire status as partner members of the regional bloc starting January 1, 2025.
“Although we hope that in the near future responses will be received from four other countries, to which an invitation was also sent,” Ushakov said, noting that they are waiting for Algeria, Nigeria, Turkey and Vietnam.
They are accessions that give greater strength to the group, initially made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa; and which in 2024 Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates will join.
Hence the fact that – with the new members – the bloc now not only represents more than 41% of world GDP (not including Cuba), but they also make up the most populated countries on the planet.
The growth is substantial, taking into account that the five original members of the BRICS represented 33.76% of world GDP in October 2024, according to IMF data. It also highlights the fact that among the countries of the bloc there are important producers of key raw materials such as oil, gas, grains, meat and minerals.
It is thus expected that, with such capacity, the BRICS will resume their plans to promote the global de-dollarization process next year. An objective that remains vital for Russia, whose economy has been affected by the sanctions imposed by the West due to the war with Ukraine.
This is a goal that China also supports, in the midst of its trade war with the United States. But the plan – which seemed unstoppable in the final months of this year – faced certain dissidence. This, due to internal divisions around a series of issues, including relations with the United States in the midst of a change of government that will occur in January, when Donald Trump assumes the presidency.
And although the BRICS predict progress in the common goals of the global south, it is also feared that the increase in the number of members generate new tensions.
That is why, although some analysts warn that the bloc could undermine international order established, skeptics say its ambitions to create its own dollar-free currency and payments system, develop a viable alternative to existing international institutions, and undermine the dominance of the U.S. currency, face challenges “potentially insurmountable.”
The challenges for 2025 grow
Such as points out According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), an independent international organization, the expansion of the BRICS during 2025 reveals “a growing global dissatisfaction with the structural advantages of some dominant democracies.”
However, the CEIP considers that the block will have difficulties, given the heterogeneity of the group and the desire of some of its members to maintain diplomatic flexibility towards the G20 (mainly towards the United States).
They refer to attitudes such as that of India and Saudi Arabia. The Indian government a few months ago confessed that its intentions were not to abandon the dollar; while Saudi Arabia keeps frozen their intentions to join the BRICS.
Rather than a frontal assault on the existing world order, the final impact of BRICS is likely to be more moderate and incremental. It will provide a diverse set of emerging and middle powers with a vehicle to promote their (sometimes) overlapping interests, and a platform to tinker – or “bricoler”, as the French would say – with the rules and institutions of the multilateral system.
Carnegie Foundation for International Peace.
In this scenario, the international organization recommends that the United States and its Western partners avoid scaremongering and confrontationwhile “adopting tangible measures to address the grievances of emerging powers and promote their reasonable aspirations.”
It is an attitude that Joe Biden’s government has maintained to a certain extent – marked by its indifference towards the BRICS – with which it does not agree. trump. During his election campaign, the Republican threatened “a tariff war” against countries that try to abandon the dollar, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
Although this warning seems to have deterred economies such as Saudi Arabia and India, some European policymakers warn about the anti-Western sentiment promoted by the BRICS, which “is becoming increasingly aggressive.”
It express Thus Günther Maihold, senior researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs:
The charge that the West is arrogant about the needs of the Global South is serious. It cannot be answered by offering ‘values-based alliances’ and ‘rules-based’ multilateralism when the BRICS’ interest is in changing those rules in global finance, trade and other standard-setting procedures.
Günther Maihold.
Consequently, there are those who evaluate the expansion of the group and the growing interest of many countries in joining the BRICS, as the result of a “mediocre Western response to the needs of low-income countries.”
Therefore, although with the arrival of Donald Trump the group’s plans seem to have lost strength, the final advice to Western countries for 2025 is go beyond threats and begin to seriously reform financial institutions.
The BRICS, for their part, must work on balancing their internal tensions this time under the leadership of a Latin American economy, like Brazil’s.
They are efforts on both sides that will allow the dominance of the dollar to be sustained for longer, although they will also determine the ability of the BRICS to become a more unified and with greater weight on the world stage.
