On January 1, Hungary will hand over the six-month rotating presidency of the EU to Poland, bringing to a close a tumultuous half year for the bloc.
Instead of acting as a neutral mediator, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán set out on a collision course with Brussels and angered his allies with his willing “peace missions” and surprise visits to Moscow, Kiev and Beijing. , which were not agreed upon in advance.
“Poland’s presidency of the EU Council will be a mirror image of what has happened in the last six months,” predicts Kai-Olaf Lang, an Eastern Europe expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.
Lange told DW that this would apply, above all, to EU security policy and relations with Ukraine and Russia.
‘Nobody can beat me’
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is a highly experienced European politician. He was President of the European Council from 2014 to 2019 and later President of the transnational European People’s Party (EPP), the largest party in the European Parliament.
Tusk’s coalition won general elections in Poland just a year ago, after eight years of government led by the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party. In his first government statement since taking over as Polish Prime Minister in December 2023, he boldly declared that “no one in the EU can defeat me.”
‘Europe speaks our language’
The presidency of the Council of the EU is the perfect opportunity for Tusk to show that his claims are more than just words and that, 20 years after joining the EU, Poland is no longer a trainee, but can also show some of the “old” members. Is. Explains how it is done.
“We are trusted. Europe speaks our language,” Adam Slapka, Poland’s minister for the EU, said recently as he presented the country’s priorities for the presidency of the EU Council. Szlapka said his country had become “experts on the biggest challenges” facing the West.
Strong argument on security
For several months now, Tusk’s speeches have been calling for the security policy of Poland and other countries on the eastern side of NATO to be the policy of the entire EU.
“We must boost our relations with the US, but Europe must be independent, stand on its own feet. Now is the time to end Russia’s era of fear and uncertainty,” he said ahead of the eighth Nordic NB8 summit. should be abolished.” -Baltic countries in Sweden in late November.
Poland is certainly at the forefront in terms of defense spending. It currently devotes 4.2% of its GDP to defense and intends to increase this to 4.7% in 2025.
This is not only a strong argument to put forward to other EU countries, but also for future discussions with US President-elect Donald Trump, who has called for greater commitment from his European partners.
There is no peace in Ukraine
Tusk is committed to blocking any potential peace talks over the end of the war in Ukraine, which are being held over the heads of Ukrainians and especially between the US and Russia. He also wants the EU to have a seat at the negotiating table.
“Our Presidency of the EU Council will be jointly responsible for the status of the negotiations, which could start this winter,” he said in early December. “Ukraine should be present at every (round) of talks. Our friends in Kiev should also accept every type, every proposal,” Tusk said after meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Warsaw on December 12.
To be prepared for all situations, Poland is building a defense line called “East Shield” on its border with Belarus and wants Europe to help finance it. Warsaw is also involved in the European air defense initiative known as European Sky Shield.
Tusk’s government supports euro bonds for defence, but the idea of raising new EU debt is highly controversial in the bloc. Germany and the Netherlands are particularly opposed to the idea.
Ukraine is pushing to join the European Union
A year after the European Council decided to open access negotiations with Ukraine, Poland wants to start talks. Minister Szlapka suggested that negotiations could start by focusing on the rule of law, human rights and the fight against corruption.
While Kiev is pushing to start negotiations in more and more areas, Warsaw does not want to rush into anything.
That’s because Poland is once again in election campaign mode: a new president is to be elected next May.
The importance of the election for Tusk’s centre-left coalition government cannot be underestimated. This is why Tusk will not risk launching any European project that is unpopular domestically and could be used against him by the opposition.
domestic political obstacles
This time last year, Tusk’s inauguration as prime minister coincided with massive farmers’ protests against grain imports from Ukraine. Blockades were imposed on both the Polish–Ukrainian and Polish–German borders.
Ukraine is hoping for a trade agreement that will solve the issue of imports into the EU for several years. However, Poland is unlikely to make concessions to Ukraine in this area.
Poland is also a staunch opponent of the free trade agreement with South America and is likely to do everything in its power to prevent the agreement from being implemented as planned, given that Warsaw has powerful allies including France.
A possible revision of the European treaties to allow greater majority decisions within the EU is also controversial in Poland, meaning it is not a priority for the country’s EU presidency. Poland’s national-conservative opposition sees the plan as the disintegration of the Polish state.
“No, we won’t work on that [an amendment of the treaties]I don’t think the Council has any interest in it,” Agnieszka Bartol, Poland’s ambassador to the EU, told Polish news agency PAP.
The situation in Germany and France has an impact
Tusk is also highly skeptical about the European Green Deal developed by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The agreement aims to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions in the EU to zero by 2050.
Tusk has said that “naive ambitions to save the entire planet” are hindering Europe’s competitiveness in the world. “Decarbonization cannot be achieved by de-industrialization,” Minister Szlapka warned. He warned that citizens’ acceptance of climate policies was declining.
Poland’s presidency of the EU Council coincides with domestic political crises in both Germany and France. Tusk wants to use the weakness of these two European powers to strengthen his country’s position.
“Poland is extremely active in terms of its position. However, an alliance with the Nordic and Baltic states will not be enough,” warns Eastern Europe expert Lange.
“Poland will present itself as a pro-Europe country that is willing to shape things,” Lange says. “However, at the same time, Poland will see again and again that economic and political obstacles in Germany and France They will be an obstacle that prevents Europe from moving forward.”
This article was originally published in German.
