MicroStrategy (MSTR), a software company famous for being the company with the most bitcoin (BTC), ended 2024 with an appreciation of almost 360% in the value of its shares. This is triple the performance that the digital currency obtained in the same period. Such a result occurs despite its recent decline in decorrelation with BTC, which generates uncertainty about its future in 2025.
Precisely, MSTR experiences a drop of almost 50% since hitting an all-time high of $543 (USD) a little over a month ago, at the end of November. Such a movement occurs despite the fact that BTC appreciated 3% at the same time and MicroStrategy bought as much bitcoin in the last month as it has in the last three years.
Normally MSTR and BTC are correlated, but this changed recently amid a confluence of factors. According to Markus Thielen, CEO of cryptocurrency research firm 10x Research, it happens in part because MicroStrategy shares were overvalued.
“Rather than serving as a true leveraged play on bitcoin, investors have been significantly overpaying,” clarify. This led to massive profit taking which led to its price drop. Even renowned traders like Juan Rodríguez they affirmed having withdrawn positions to secure returns.
“The current underperformance of the stock, despite significant bitcoin acquisitions, indicates that investors are no longer willing to pay an implied price of $200,000 (or more) per bitcoin through MicroStrategy when it can be purchased directly from a much lower cost,” says Thielen. The coin is currently trading at USD 96,000.
For the specialist, change underscores growing rationality among investors who previously bought the MicroStrategy narrative as “a leveraged bitcoin play.” This concept refers to a way to gain exposure to the volatility of the currency from traditional markets, without acquiring it directly.
Today, it is not the only company investing in bitcoin and traditional investors can also gain exposure through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In this sense, you may no longer perceive as much demand for this reason.
“With MicroStrategy stock now 44% below its peak and other companies adopting bitcoin as a treasury asset strategy on a much smaller scale, the bitcoin tailwind generated by this narrative appears to be losing steam,” notes the CEO of 10x Research.
Should MSTR correct the outperformance of BTC that it had in the last year, then its price will continue to decline. Below, you can see its performance in 2024 compared to other large assets.
While some flee MSTR, others see a buying opportunity
Despite the pessimistic views, from other eyes, There are those who consider its recent decline as enough to enter its market. “People are absolutely terrified to buy MSTR right now; “That makes me feel incredibly optimistic,” says the trader known as Bitcoin Overflow.
“Simply doing the opposite of X’s predominant mood works very well,” he adds. In his opinion, the market could have reached undervalued levels.
If bitcoin continues to rise, MSTR may become correlated again, if no headwinds occur for the company. In fact, in principle, just like the currency, it opened slightly higher in 2025.
Currently, MSTR is trading at USD 330. Therefore, with an increase in demand, the market may try to recover $360 and then $440. On the other hand, if the offer continues to gain strength, it could decline to USD 270 or, in a worse scenario, to USD 220 or USD 180.
Such price levels, as the following graph shows, have been strong support and resistance zones over the last year. That means that, due to the psychology of traders, they could once again be key points where these phenomena are repeated.
Supports are areas of temporary minimum prices due to greater demand than supply and resistances the opposite. These levels tend to be repeated and even replaced depending on the market trend. In bullish movements, strong resistance usually becomes support, and in bearish situations the opposite.
For Matt Allen, specialist in investment education and stock market growth, MSTR is one of the stocks related to the world of cryptocurrencies that could skyrocket in 2025. His forecast It is based on the optimistic expectations for the market this year.
There are positive expectations for the markets, although also concerns about MicroStrategy
With the upcoming presidential inauguration of Donald Trump in the United States this month, it is possible for the government to acquire bitcoin as a strategic asset in its reserves. At least, this is something that the Republican has promoted during his campaign, as well as facilitating regulation that favors the development of the cryptocurrency industry.
Bitcoin also always reached the peak of each bullish cycle it had in the year following its halving, an event that halves its issuance every four years. Its last edition was in 2024, which fuels the possibility that it will reach new all-time high prices in 2025 if it continues its historical pattern.
However, as CriptoNoticias reported, MicroStrategy Faces Concerns About Higher Debt and Possible Increase in Share Count. According to the financial newsletter The Kobeissi Letter, to continue buying bitcoin, the company needs to issue more debt, which puts the interest of its shareholders at stake.
With this scenario, beyond the factors that impact the bitcoin market, the company’s strategic changes are key for the price of MSTR. About it, warns analyst James Van Straten who There are chances that it will enter the S&P 500 (SPX)an index that compiles the top 500 US stocks.
“The only requirement that remains for MSTR to enter the S&P 500 is to have positive earnings over the sum of the previous 4 quarters,” he explains. If bitcoin reaches new highs, it signals that MicroStrategy’s inclusion in such an index is possible in the second quarter of 2025.
The possible entry into the SPX, after its recent entry into the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), another index that brings together large stocks, may facilitate its demand in bullish periods. Therefore, the completion of this event could lead MSTR to higher prices, if the stock market continues to rise.
