Lebanon has had no actual president for more than two years, but that could change this week.
On Thursday, MPs are going to make their 13th attempt to elect a new President. According to the Lebanese Constitution, state power rests with the Prime Minister and the Cabinet. However, the transitional government under Prime Minister Najib Mikati has only limited powers and is unable to address Lebanon’s political and economic problems.
The prospects for a successful election now exist partly because of the ceasefire agreement that Israel and Hezbollah signed in late November after several weeks of fighting on the ground and Israeli air strikes on Lebanon. Previously, Lebanese political opponents had blocked each other’s candidates. But now, a president and a governing executive are needed to credibly implement the ceasefire agreement, which expires at the end of January.
This election is taking place against the backdrop of several crises in Lebanon. The country has been suffering from a severe economic recession for the past several years, with bank deposits freezing and the value of the Lebanese pound falling.
The consequences of the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel also resulted in considerable destruction in Lebanon, and reparations will need to be dealt with and paid for.
But at present the most important task is to strengthen the ceasefire. The Lebanese government has said that 1.3 million people have been internally displaced by the conflict, and it is important that these people are able to return home. Lebanon is also interested in seeing the many Syrian refugees living in the country return to their homes across the border.
“The situation is dramatic in many ways,” said Michael Bauer, head of the Beirut office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. “So it will not be enough to agree on any [presidential] A consensus candidate whose legitimacy rests on little more than minimal agreement between the parties represented in Parliament. “Instead, it will be important to find a president who credibly symbolizes a new beginning.”
deep conversation
The comparatively difficult period ahead of the elections has put Lebanese political parties under immense pressure. Intensive pre-discussion was necessary to put forward candidates with any real chance of success. This is because the Lebanese Parliament is divided into several factions according to the many different ethnic and religious groups that make up Lebanon’s heterogeneous population.
The electoral process is considered to comply with the country’s traditional confessional system, which determines how the most senior political positions are filled. For example, the President must be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of the Parliament a Shia Muslim.
So far, the most promising candidate in this election is Joseph Aoun, a Maronite Christian and the armed commander-in-chief of the Lebanese army. He is also believed to have the support of the opposition, largely due to Hezbollah’s apparent new willingness to compromise.
Until recently Hezbollah – which includes a military wing and a political wing and is also involved in social welfare – had supported Slimane Frangieh, an ally of now-ousted Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, for president. But now Hezbollah’s new leader, Maulvi Naim Qassem, has indicated that the group will also accept a different candidate.
Lebanese political analyst Ronny Chatah told DW that this change in attitude is partly due to the recent fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. During the fighting, Hezbollah saw its domestic political influence decline.
“Hezbollah’s objection to army commander-in-chief Joseph Aoun has faded,” Chatah said. This means that “Hezbollah cannot broadly rule out the possibility of the commander-in-chief becoming the country’s next president.”
Army is the most trusted institution
Aoun’s potential success may also be explained by his leading one of the only Lebanese institutions — the army — that locals still trust, Bauer said.
Bauer said, “‘President Joseph Aoun’ will be someone who represents a new, positive force for many Lebanese people.” “It is likely that he will also receive the necessary support among the population. Moreover, because of his military background, he will be able to take the emerging security tasks seriously. It is also possible that this will persuade many parties to vote for Aoun. Have inspired. A candidate recently.”
Chatah said, whatever the outcome of this election, the most important issue is that Lebanon gets a new president. Instead of the transitional and somewhat powerless current government, Lebanon needs a government legitimately elected by voters, as well as a new prime minister and parliament.
“These are all necessary conditions for Lebanon to function as a state,” Chatah said. “Now, for the first time in two years, there is a possibility that a president will be elected. This is a first positive step.”
This story was originally written in German.
