MARA is projected as a good investment for 2025

Marathon Holdings, Inc. (MARA), the largest publicly traded bitcoin (BTC) mining company, experiences a 28% decline in its share price in the last year. However, according to stock analyst Brent Hecht, looking to 2025 that has just begun, they could be a good investment that appreciates in value.

“Bitcoin’s recent rise to over $100,000 may make you feel like you’ve missed out if you didn’t buy sooner,” the analyst notes. Even so, he believes that now may be a good time to acquire it due to its upside potential, but it is not the only thing.

“Another option is to buy a bitcoin mining company that has BTC on its balance sheet, such as Marathon Holdings (MARA),” he adds. In a report In this regard, published on January 6, the specialist clarifies that this company has adopted the MicroStrategy strategywhich enables the rise of its shares.

Shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR), a software services company, have been one of the best performers globally in 2024, registering a 360% rise. This has been caused by their recurring purchases of bitcoin, an asset that appreciated 120% at the same time

“MicroStrategy is now famous for implementing a bitcoin treasury strategy, where they issue debt and equity to purchase BTC and hold it on their balance sheet,” Hecht explains.

As shown in the following graph, MicroStrategy increases the amount of bitcoin per share every quarter. Therefore, if the price of bitcoin increases, the price of MSTR will increase by an equal amount plus a multiple of the growth rate of BTC per share.

Marathon Holdings ranks second in terms of the amount of bitcoin (44,893 BTC) on its balance sheet among all publicly traded companies, behind MicroStrategy (447,470 BTC).

“Thanks to observing MSTR’s success in acquiring bitcoins using the debt and equity markets, Mara Holdings has begun implementing the same strategy. There has been no doubt about it, seeing how MicroStrategy has acquired an impressive amount of bitcoin without deploying a single mining machine, an amount that Mara Holdings can only dream of.”

Brent Hecht, stock analyst.

The analyst states that “the period between 2025 and 2026 could be exceptionally bullish for Mara Holdings”. He not only supports this projection in his MicroStrategy tracking strategy, but also in technical analysis.

Regarding the technical analysis, it specifies that the price of MARA had a clear descending trend line that was heading towards the bottom it experienced in 2020. However, since the end of 2022, it has exhibited a reversal and a possible upward trend, as reflected in the following graph.

“The fundamentals must support the technical aspects and given the success MSTR has had with its strategy, I expect MARA to also experience similar success,” says Hecht.

The company has also improved its energy efficiency and increased its bitcoin production on a quarterly basis during 2024, as shown below. “It is impressive and necessary that Mara has achieved this improvement over time,” highlights the specialist due to the strong competition in mining.

Marathon Diversification with KASPA

For the analyst, it is also relevant that Mara Holdings has diversified its operations beyond bitcoin, adding the mining of another crypto asset. This is the cryptocurrency kaspa (KAS), a name that means “silver” in Aramaic.

According to Hecht, bitcoin is a wonderful long-term store of valuebut it fails to function as an effective payment system. His arguments are summarized in two aspects: his block times are too slow and his transaction fees are too high. This is something that kaspa seems to be more optimal for, he mentions and clarifies:

“This may be a controversial statement for Bitcoin enthusiasts, but the main spirit of Bitcoin is decentralization. And while for some, this just means the Bitcoin network, I like to think of decentralization in much broader terms. Personally, I believe that decentralization should not only happen in terms of geographic computing, but also in terms of the existence of numerous networks through which people can choose the best network for their specific needs.

Brent Hecht, stock analyst.

With this in mind, it deepens that, for the largest publicly traded mining company to decide to invest resources in a new token, it must have proven that it is solid.

“Since Mara is the first public miner to mine Kaspa, it is possible that he will acquire a higher amount relative to any other company, giving him a similar position in Kaspa, as MSTR has in Bitcoin,” he maintains. Although, it should be taken into account that this asset barely ranks 46th among the largest by capitalization.

In short, “one of the biggest risks for Mara Holdings will be to maintain solvency by maintaining a healthy relationship between financing its bitcoin purchases with debt and equity,” he adds. Therefore, sees it vital to strengthen your business.

It is necessary to be cautious

“Bitcoin is a wonderful investment when its price rises, but if a person (or company) uses debt to acquire it, it can also lead to their ruin on the way down,” Hecht recalls.

Hecht’s outlook on bitcoin “is bullish in the short term.” “But if the price of BTC exceeds $200,000, then I would proceed with caution when holding shares of Mara Holdings or MicroStrategy,” he warns. I would then wait for the start of a new bear market.

However, he makes the reservation that he expects a slighter drop in bitcoin during the next bear market than in the past. Although, with this, he foresees that some companies that are overly leveraged will then be dragged down and perhaps into the possibility of bankruptcy.

According to your vision, once the BTC bull party is over, there will be sellers and general selling pressure on these companies. “MicroStrategy and Mara Holding’s strategy of selling shares for a value greater than the bitcoin they currently have per share works very well, until BTC re-enters a bear market,” he underlines.

Shareholders could experience a negative return greater than any decline in bitcoin price and then find themselves waiting until the next bull market for the stock to turn around. This is assuming that the company in question can survive the recession, warns Hecht.

The analyst recalls that, during the last crypto winter of 2022, various bitcoin mining and lending companies declared bankruptcy after the fall of the currency, as reported by CriptoNoticias. He therefore warns this as a key risk for companies like Mara Holdings that have begun lending out their BTC holdings to earn interest.

Despite the aforementioned risks, Hecht considers MARA to be a good buy looking ahead to the current year for the market. “Both the fundamental and technical factors seem to be aligned for good performance,” he concludes.

Clarification: This text is written for informational purposes. It does not constitute a financial recommendation or investment advice.