Earth is set to have its hottest year ever recorded in 2024, weather monitoring agencies announced Friday, with a jump so big that the planet temporarily crossed a major climate threshold.
It is the first time in recorded history that the planet was above the expected limit of warming for an entire year, according to four of the six teams’ measurements. Scientists say that if Earth remains above the limit for a long time, it will mean increased deaths, destruction, species loss and the extreme weather that comes with warming will lead to sea level rise.
And it will come on top of a year of deadly climate disasters – $27 billion worth of disasters in the US alone in 2024 – and 2025 that will begin with devastating wildfires in Southern California.
Last year’s global average temperatures easily surpassed the record heat set for 2023 and are on track. This exceeded the long-term warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius since the late 1800s, set by the 2015 Paris climate accord, according to the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Service, the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office, Japan’s weather agency, and the private Berkeley Earth. Was called by. Team.
Only two US government agencies were below that 1.5 mark. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA recorded temperatures of 1.46 degrees Celsius and 1.47 degrees Celsius respectively last year.
The Copernicus team calculated a temperature increase of 1.6 degrees Celsius; Japan, 1.57; and British, 1.53. Berkeley Earth – originally funded by a climate change skeptic – was the warmest at 1.62 degrees.
green house gases
“The primary cause of these record temperatures is the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from the burning of coal, oil and gas,” said Samantha Burgess, head of strategic climate at Copernicus. “As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, temperatures including in the oceans continue to rise, sea levels continue to rise, and glaciers and ice sheets continue to melt.”
Last year was the hottest year ever for the United States, NOAA said. It was not only the warmest in recordkeeping that goes back to 1850, but also the warmest for the planet in possibly 125,000 years, Burgess said.
“There’s no indication that this won’t continue,” NOAA monitoring chief Russ Vos said Friday. “When there’s more heat in the system, it has cascading effects on other parts of the system. Sea levels rise. Warmer air can hold more moisture, which equates to more intense storms. There are a lot of effects.” Who move along with a warmer world.”
Many scientists said that by far the biggest contributor to record warming is the burning of fossil fuels. A temporary natural El Niño warming in the central Pacific increased the amount by a small amount, Burgess said, and an undersea volcanic eruption in 2022 cooled the atmosphere as it added more reflective particles as well as water vapor to the atmosphere. Put.
alarm bells are ringing
“Climate-change-related alarm bells are ringing almost constantly, causing the public to become as stunned as police sirens in New York City,” said Jennifer Francis, a scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center. “However, in the case of climate, the alarms are becoming louder, and the emergencies now extend beyond just temperature.”
Comparing it to a car’s dashboard warning light, University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd said, “Hurricane Helene, the floods in Spain and the weather that fueled wildfires in California are symptoms of this unfortunate climate change. “
According to NOAA, 27 weather disasters hit the United States last year, causing at least $1 billion in damages, just one short of the record set in 2023. The US cost of those disasters was $182.7 billion. Hurricane Helene was the costliest and deadliest of the year, causing at least 219 deaths and $79.6 billion in damage.
“In the 1980s, Americans experienced a [$1] “On average, more than a billion weather and climate disasters occur every four months,” said Texas Tech climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe in an email about NOAA’s inflation-adjusted data. “Now, there’s one every three weeks – and we already have the first disaster of 2025, even though there are only nine days left in the year.”
major limit violated
Scientists were quick to point out that the 1.5 degree target is for long-term warming, now defined as a 20-year average. In the long term, temperatures are now 1.3 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial times.
Victor Gensini, a climate scientist at Northern Illinois University, said, “The 1.5 degrees Celsius limit is not just a number – it’s a red flag. Exceeding it even by one year shows that we are on the verge of violating the limits set by the Paris Agreement.” How close they are.” said in an email.
A major UN study in 2018 found that keeping Earth’s temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees Celsius could save coral reefs from extinction, preventing massive ice sheet loss in Antarctica. And the death and suffering of many people can be prevented.
Francis called the threshold “dead in the water.”
Burgess said it was very likely the Earth would exceed the 1.5 degree limit, but he called the Paris Agreement an “extraordinarily important international policy” to which countries around the world should remain committed.
More heat is likely to increase
European and British calculations show that 2025 is likely not as hot as 2024, with a cooler La Niña instead of last year’s warming El Niño. They estimate that this will prove to be the third hottest year. However, according to Copernicus data, the first six days of January – despite cold temperatures in the US East – have been slightly warmer on average and are the warmest start to a year ever.
Scientists are divided over whether global warming is accelerating.
Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo said there is not enough data to see an acceleration in atmospheric warming, but the heat content of the oceans is not only increasing but increasing at a fast pace.
“We are facing a very new climate and new challenges – climate challenges that our society is not prepared for,” Buontempo said.
It’s all like watching the end of “a dystopian sci-fi movie,” said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania. “Now we’re taking advantage of what we’ve heard.”
