The big current question in the bitcoin (BTC) market is how it will continue after the presidential inauguration of Donald Trump in the United States.
Is a price rise coming for bitcoin after this event scheduled for January 20, 2025? Will there be strong profit taking that drags the digital currency down? What should be expected?
“There is a lot of speculation and expectations with Trump for the bull market generated as soon as he won the elections,” warns Alejandro Estrin, country manager of the OKX Argentina exchange.
After his electoral victory, the price of bitcoin has entered a trend to new all-time highs. It surpassed the resistance of USD 73,000 that it held for months, rising to more than USD 100,000.
“Reaching USD 100,000 as a round, impactful and large number, makes the normal user, the one who is not involved in the ‘crypto’ world, start to become a little more informed and want to join,” Estrin highlights in a message sent to CriptoNoticias.
During his political campaign, Trump has highlighted bitcoin’s role as a store of value. He has even promised to integrate the BTC seized by the government into the federal Treasury. “It was huge news for the industry,” says Estrin.
There is a limited amount of bitcoin in the world, so that initiative should be extremely good for the marketclarifies the specialist. In addition, he emphasizes that “there are many people from the ‘crypto’ world involved in the Trump administration.”
Trump said during the campaign that he wants to transform the United States into the capital of the digital asset industry. As part of this strategy, he has said he will fire Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), for hindering the growth of the industry.
For years, Gensler rejected the launch of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), until a court ruling forced him to give them the green light a year ago, considering his disapproval “unjustified.”
This panorama envisions a government administration interested in bitcoin and more industry-friendly regulation. “This is expected to be very good for the market, but it is all speculation and what one is expecting does not always happen,” warns the OKX manager.
There is optimism for bitcoin, but with caution…
Beyond the American political situation, Estrin indicates that bitcoin is in a bullish season. “It is normal that during these periods there are variations in prices, both increases and decreases,” he details.
Price declines in bullish periods are normal as generalized profit-taking processes. Therefore, its recent decline from the all-time high of USD 108,000 a month ago to around USD 90,000 does not rule out the possibility of seeing new price records.
The OKX manager also emphasizes the importance of thinking about bitcoin in the long term, maintaining that It is one of the most solid investments for the future. The currency has always gone through bullish and bearish cycles in which it reaches higher prices, around each halving, an event that reduces its issuance by half every four years. which explains this observation.
With this panorama, amid growing global interest in bitcoin, “the prospects for 2025 seem even more promising,” says Estric. However, for the specialist, It is crucial to maintain a cautious outlook.
“Although the price of bitcoin has reached new highs, the market remains unpredictable, and part of its essence is knowing how to adapt to these margins of volatility,” he concludes.
The bitcoin market is attentive to Trump’s movements
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX exchange and chief investment officer of the Maelstrom firm, expects the bullish momentum to continue at least until March to take profits. The reason is that this one looks strong and stable.
That is why has discarded its previous projections that predicted a sharp drop after Trump’s inauguration. In his view, such a scenario could occur as investors lower their expectations for the industry from ambitious to realistic. But given the current strength of the market, he now believes that won’t happen.
Bitcoin has tested $90,000 as support multiple times over the past two months, which may reflect a solid floor for demand to grow. This movement is healthy for the rise to new historical highs to continue around Trump’s inauguration.
Probably, If the president were to make comments about digital assets during his inauguration, this would act as a catalyst for a price increase.. Likewise, the progress made in fulfilling his promises during his first year in office could act in the same way.
Given greater buying force, it is expected that the bitcoin market will once again seek its all-time high price and then go through the psychological levels of USD 110,000 and USD 120,000.
However, not all experts agree on a post-inauguration rise. “It is very likely that the market has delusional expectations about the pace of policy changes and overvalues their impact,” has declared Vetle Lunde of K33 Research, so he foresees a decline in mid-January.
Should selling pressure intensify, bitcoin could retest $90,000 as support, as it has done for the past two months, or decline to deeper levels. Given this last situation, a stop is possible in the area around USD 73,000, given that it has acted as a strong resistance last year.
Despite these warnings, overall specialist sentiment remains positive for bitcoin this year. Several agree that its price will exceed USD 150,000 or even more ambitious figures in this cycle before entering a bear market.
During bitcoin bull cycles, its price has tended to see sustained increases from around October to around March-April, as the following graph shows. This pattern could contribute to the market’s momentum, especially in the event of an interest rate cut in the United States.
Recent interest rate cuts have driven markets higher. Although it is worth knowing that the dominant expectations for the next decision, which will be on March 29, are that they will remain unchanged, as the labor market strengthens. Therefore, attention could focus on projections for the next one scheduled for March 19.
Therefore, it is key to keep in mind that It’s not just the Trump administration that will impact market action in the short term.but a sum of factors to which investors are paying attention.
