Donald Trump’s first days in office will be symbolically important and his actions will likely have a mixed impact of domestic and international politics. He will want to show voters that he means business while showcasing America’s power abroad.
Using Presidential Executive Orders
To move things forward quickly, Trump will rely on executive orders, which are directives issued by the President. These orders are passed by the US Congress and can cover a wide range of issues such as national security, foreign policy, and regulatory matters. Hopefully a stack of them will be ready for his signing on January 20th.
In a TV interview on “Meet the Press” on December 8, Trump confirmed that he would sign “a lot” of executive orders on the first day, related to the economy, energy, and most importantly, the Mexican border.
However, executive orders are not an omnipresent power and can only be used to direct the actions of the executive branch, says Dan Mallinson, associate professor of public policy and administration at Penn State Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
“These powers could still be broad, including his promise to close the border,” he told DW, “but the other orders begin a slow federal rulemaking process that could take years.”
Immigration and mass deportation
Since coming on the national stage, Trump’s eyes have been fixed on the Mexican border and the people crossing it and entering America. In his first term in office, he wanted to build a wall between the two countries and have Mexico pay for it.
Four years later, curbing irregular migration by securing the country’s borders was one of the main issues that re-elected Trump. He is likely to revive the “Remain in Mexico” policy, under which asylum seekers would have to wait in Mexico while claims are processed.
As for those already in the country illegally, he has called for the largest mass deportation in the country’s history, which would focus on criminals before moving on to other undocumented immigrants.
Despite this plan – and regardless of any executive order to accelerate deportations – doing so will require time and the support of local and state agencies. It will also face legal challenges.
In addition to fighting irregular migration, Trump is likely to again slow legal immigration, making it harder and more expensive to obtain work permits, green cards and visas, which could have a knock-on effect on skilled workers and prospective university students.
Trump also confirmed on “Meet the Press” that ending birthright citizenship through executive action if possible was a Day 1 priority. “We’re going to end it because it’s ridiculous,” he said. This can be difficult because the principle that anyone born on American soil is a US citizen is enshrined in the Constitution.
Threat of tariffs on imported goods
Trade is another area Trump is very focused on. Recently, he suggested imposing a blanket tariff of 10% on everything entering the US. Mexico, Canada and China, the country’s biggest trading partners, will face even higher tariffs.
“It’s not yet clear to what extent this will happen or whether the threat of tariffs is being used to push some countries into trade negotiations,” Mallinson said. However, based on his record, he thinks Trump will introduce at least some new tariffs.
While the President has the authority to impose tariffs on specific categories of imports, issuing blanket tariffs on all goods would be more complex. Such a move will lead to anarchy and will be challenged in court.
Additionally, tariffs may exacerbate domestic problems. “Anger over inflation helped Trump win the presidency, but he could quickly lose public support if his economic policy raises prices or stagnates the economy,” Mallinson said.
Leaving the Paris climate agreement again
The environment is less important to American voters than the economy or immigration, yet Trump has made it his target.
During his first term as president, he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, which aimed to cut carbon emissions to fight climate change. Joe Biden reversed that decision and rejoined the treaty on his first day in office.
Now, repeating the phrase “Drill baby, drill”, Trump has promised to increase crude oil production. Since he focuses on fracking and fossil fuels, it should be no surprise if he again withdraws from the climate agreement as one of his first official acts.
Trump has shown disdain for renewable wind power generation and electric vehicles. This skepticism could lead to other executive orders that could roll back environmental protections and slow the pace of renewable energy projects.
Pardon for convicted Capitol rioters
Presidential pardons, a tool that gives the President the authority to pardon people convicted of federal crimes or commute prison sentences, may also come into use from day one.
Trump has made it clear that he may pardon most of the hundreds of people convicted in the attack on the US Capitol building on January 6, 2021.
“Probably, I would do it very quickly,” he confirmed on “Meet the Press,” adding that it would be a priority on day one, even if he pleaded guilty to a crime like assaulting police officers. Because they had no choice” but to accept blame.
Whether Trump will try to pardon himself for any federal crimes is an open question.
Ultimately, only the Trump team knows what’s in store for his first days in office. But they will need to act fast because midterm elections in two years could eliminate the Republican majority in the Senate or House of Representatives.
Mallinson concluded, “Presidents come to office with a sense of mandate and political capital that is rapidly diminishing.” “He can’t run again in 2028, so everything he wants to accomplish must be accomplished in one term.”
Edited by: Rob Mudge
