Storm clouds have been looming over French politics for some time now, but it was only in the summer of last year that the thunder really began.
In July, the results of early parliamentary elections remained unclear as no single party gained a clear majority. The three major political factions eventually entered parliament in Paris, and the new government appointed by French President Emmanuel Macron was forced to rule without a majority to have its say.
Thus, in December, Prime Minister Michel Barnier was ousted on a motion of no confidence after motions were tabled by left and far-right opposition parties because he had pushed through budget measures without parliamentary approval. Now his successor Francois Bayrou has inherited the difficult task of governing a divided society and a fractured political landscape. Bayrou heads the centrist Democratic Movement, known as Modem, which is a key part of Macron’s centrist coalition.
Still, Bayeru took it seriously during his inaugural speech in the French Parliament on Tuesday afternoon. “84% of French people think the government will not be able to make it through the year,” he said, smiling. “I sometimes even wonder where the other 16% get their optimism.”
Bayru continued his speech by saying that the current, difficult political situation should be seen as an opportunity. He argued, “When everything seems so bad, the only recourse is courage.” His speech discussed French hospitals, the country’s high national debt, immigration, political party finance, agriculture and the majoritarian voting system, among many other topics.
Controversial pension reform
However, the main focus was on another item – France’s controversial pension reform, which is believed to gradually raise the retirement age from 62 to 64. Bayru says he will again put the reform up for debate and, in doing so, he appears to be trying to win over the center-left Socialist Party, or PS.
Bayrou proposed that France’s respected auditing court conduct a financial analysis of the current state of French pension funds, after which trade unions and employer associations were given three months to work “behind closed doors” on a new pension reform proposal. Will go.
All options should be on the table, Bayru said, but the new “conference” in charge of exploring pension reform must present a proposal that is fiscally balanced.
The PS had previously made blocking pension reform one of the conditions for its support in parliament.
Prime Minister Bayeru is going a different path than his predecessor, the ill-fated Barnier, who reached out to the far-right opposition in parliament and made several concessions to the National Rally, or RN, headed by Marine Le Pen.
This ultimately did not help him, as in the December no-confidence vote, the RN voted against Barnier and helped bring down his government.
The PS has only 60 sitting members of parliament, while the National Rally has double the number. But combined with the votes of centrist parties, the PS seats would be enough to prevent future no-confidence votes from succeeding.
socialist not convinced
Still, at this point, Bayeru’s offer is too vague for PS. Party leader Olivier Faure told French broadcaster TF1 that the PS would withdraw its support if it did not get “clear answers” to its questions. “I demand that the Prime Minister clearly state whether there is any consensus on the party’s proposals regarding pension reform.”
It should not have much impact on parliament’s next no-confidence vote, which is scheduled for Thursday and was introduced by the hard-left France Unbiased, or LFI, party along with the Green Party and the French Communist Party. However, this time the far-right National Rally has announced that it will not vote against the government.
But there is no guarantee of any future decision. This insecurity is particularly relevant with regard to the French state budget for 2025. Parliament will debate it again in February.
Benjamin Morel, lecturer in public law at the University of Paris-Panthéon-Assas, pointed out that to secure the PS’s support, the government would have to offer much more.
“For example, they [the PS] “We are demanding that the cuts of 4,000 jobs in the education sector be removed from the budget and taxes raised for the rich,” Morell told DW. “Without very concrete promises, the PS will not risk distancing itself from the other under any circumstances.” “Member of the leftist New Popular Front coalition.”
The New Popular Front is a broad coalition of left-wing parties that came together, surprising some observers, shortly before the summer elections. This includes the four parties on the left – the PS, LFI, the Greens and the Communists – who previously spent more time competing against each other than cooperating.
If the French government falls again, things will become more difficult for President Macron, especially if he has to find another new prime minister. Some French parties, including the LFI and RN, are already calling for him to resign and for presidential elections to be brought forward.
Bayru’s clever strategy
Nicolas Rousselier, professor of history at Sciences Po, University of Paris, believes Bayrou’s suggestion of a “conclave” is tactful.
“He is using a method of social democracy that dates back to France’s Fourth Republic, which ran from 1945 to 1958,” he told DW. Christian democrats and socialists together designed the French social system at that time.
“By allowing collective bargaining partners to negotiate behind closed doors, he is buying himself more time,” Rousselier explained. “The Socialists will not approve a government if it could disrupt negotiations about a more equitable pension system. But then Parliament will have to negotiate forcefully on any legislative proposals arising from it. After all, it is not Macron or Bayreu who Will come or any other political rival.”
Luc Ruban, a senior research fellow at the Center for Political Research et Sciences Po, suggests that Bayrou’s method could also provide an opportunity for French Social Democrats to reorient themselves.
“The PS wants to step out of the shadow of the ultra-radical LFI to field its own candidate for the 2027 presidential elections,” Ruban said. “If it makes peace with Bayeru, it may attract more voters from the Centre.”
Ruban said that if Bayrou’s plan works, he himself may even enter the race to become the next President of France. “Few people believe he can do it. But his big advantage is that many people underestimate him,” he said.
Rousselier agreed, saying that Bayrou had echoed the views of the French political center in his speech. “In such a polarized time he didn’t attack anyone and repeatedly said you have to talk to all sides,” Rousselier said. “He showed he has his feet firmly on the ground.”
He suggested that it might also gain Bayeru some votes in rural areas, especially from voters who have increasingly supported the far-right RN since the early 2000s. Unlike the RN’s Le Pen, Bayrou, who is from a farming family in Pau, south-western France, grew up in the countryside.
Rousselier concluded, “It makes him more authentic.”
This story was originally published in German.