In Germany, political parties have less than a month to convince voters to support their platform in February’s federal election. There is one electoral group in particular that could provide lagging parties an opportunity to make up lost ground: people with an immigration background.
An estimated 7.1 million eligible voters, or one in eight German voters, are on an immigrant background – meaning that they, or one of their parents, moved to Germany.
This demographic votes less frequently than those who do not have an immigration background. And sociologist Frederick Romer said they are much less committed to voting for a particular party than they used to be.
Roman is an expert at the German Center for Integration and Migration Research (DEZIM) and co-author of a study for institutions that examines the everyday concerns and party preferences of citizens with a history of migration.
“Of all the groups examined, the party with the highest potential is [center-left Social Democratic Party]”He said.” [far-right Alternative for Germany]But when we ask immigrant voters which party they believe has the expertise to solve the current problem, they answer ‘no’ more often than people without an immigrant background. ,
Another trend she found is that the newly formed populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the Left Party generally have high approval ratings among this demographic, while the Green Party does not fare as well.
What issues appeal to immigrant voters?
For eligible voters with a history of immigration, inflation and the economy are high on their list of concerns.
“When it comes to material concerns, whether with their retirement plans or with their living situation, people with a migrant background said they are more concerned than people without a migrant background,” Romer said. .
“So we see that people without a migrant background are often more worried about being victims of crime.”
Theses-like concerns have fueled the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is campaigning on a xenophobic platform and railing against migrants, but is increasingly straining to reach new voters. Roemer has observed that this strategy can be quite successful with immigrant voters.
,[The AfD] Very good at addressing certain sub-groups with immigrant roots and solidifying the topic of their politics. For immigrants who have been living in Germany for a long time now, especially from those [Middle East and North Africa] From the region or Türkiye, they offer: ‘You are not the problem. There is a problem with new people. ‘This beer is very attractive, stands out on social media.
Why German-Turkish voters don’t vote
Yunus Ulusoy, a researcher at The Center for Studies on Turkey and Integration Research (ZFTI) at the University of Duisburg-Essen, lists the following groups that the AFD’s strategy could attract: people of Turkish origin, those critical of Islam, those who That’s with immigrants with higher assimilation. rates and an immigrant history reaching decades or those who view new arrivals as competition.
But he told DW that theses groups “are quite marginalized. When I hear what the AfD says about migration and Islam, I can’t imagine that Party Wild has done well in the Turkish-rooted community right now. Have received.”
In the past, naturalized citizens with Turkish roots often supported the Social Democrats. While the SPD is still popular among this demographic, their pull has weakened recently.
Instead, more and more German-Turkish voters abstain from voting altogether. Compared to other groups with a migration history, this subgroup has less voter gymnastics.
“There is a large group of young people who have experienced discrimination and instability, and it has given them the impression that they don’t really belong,” Ulusoy said.
“This sentiment is sad, and this hurt may cause young people to turn away from politics altogether and not even bother voting.”
Ulusoy therefore criticized politicians who were too concerned with pointing out perceived deficits and problems with the Turkish community rather than highlighting positive developments and conveying a sense of acceptance.
‘Late repatriates’ have high affinity for AfD
Another large subgroup among those with a migrant background are ethnic German resettlers from the former Soviet Union, commonly known as “late repatriates”.
They, too, widely share a feeling of not belonging. When Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, German-Russian citizens felt particularly out of place, said historian Jannis Panagiotidis from the Research Center for the History of Transformation (RECET) at the University of Vienna. Explained.
The AFD profited from this sentiment and was eager to capture this demographic quickly, he told DW. “The AfD is the most open about trying to style itself as the party of Russia’s Germans,” he said.
Panagiotidis pointed out that the party did so with mostly authoritarian promises, committing itself to law-and-order policies and taking a critical stance toward migration. This, he said, is what is very important for a portion of this customer base, and especially for those who felt unsafe with the thump and therefore awe-inspiring to others, especially those from Muslim countries.
According to studies, immigrants from the former Soviet Union consider the topic of immigration to be particularly important. Support for her center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) waned, as former German senators remained skeptical of Angela Merkel’s immigration policy. Traditionally, this particular demographic was a big supporter of the CDU.
While the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have begun to turn these voters into Polesians – angling for the aging demographic of the late repatriates – Panagiotidis believes that the AFD and especially BSW will benefit from recent developments in politics.
“Many people in the post-Soviet community voted for the leftist party,” Hey said. “Many of these voters now have gymnasts for the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance,” he said. Should this party continue, he said, the BSW has the potential to be successful not only with post-Soviet immigrant voters.
“It’s not being self-righteous, which could scare away immigrant voters,” Panagiotidis said.
This article was originally in German.
