There are unique factors that impact the price of Bitcoin (BTC) in each cycle. And, the current one is no exception.
In this regard, the investment company Capriolle Investments highlights a series of factors that could drastically alter the panorama to Bitcoin in the coming months and that they were not present in previous cycles.
“Bitcoin is now more influenced than ever by macroeconomic markets, shares, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the decisions of the United States government,” he says about a new one in a new report. Today the changes of these aspects promote important price movements for the digital currency.
This has been seen with the political dynamics of the United States, says Capriole Investments. The victory of Donald Trump in the presidential elections in November led to the price of BTC broke the barrier it had in the US 73,000 and, on the day of its assumption a week ago, it reached a new historical maximum of USD 109,300.
Capriole details that this panorama occurs in the midst of the integration of the cryptocurrency industry with traditional financial and variable income markets. Therefore, he believes that, in 2025, macroeconomic data and changes in policies will be the “key element to follow.”
As an example, he states that, if the United States establishes a strategic Bitcoin (BSR) reserve, with BTC purchases, there will be “a huge and aggressive global response to do the same.”
The investment company emphasizes that the theory that the United States possesses and manages a Bitcoin reserve should not be underestimated. Several countries, including Russia, Germany and Hong Kong (China), have already discussed the possibility of establishing Bitcoin government reserves.
While it is soon, for Capriole Investments, anything decisive on this front Any narrative would deny that the current Bitcoin upward market will end in 2025extending the current cycle for several years.
The chances of the US for forming a bitcoin reserve grow
As cryptootics has been reporting, the first week of Trump’s new mandate, Several events have occurred that increased the probabilities of a BSR:
- Trump launched a memecoin that quickly positioned himself as one of the largest market capitalization.
- His children acquired dozens of millions of dollars in Bitcoin and Altcoins through World Liberty Financial on the Day of the Presidential Assumption.
- Michael Saylor met with Trump’s cabinet.
- A new committee was created in the Senate on digital assets, led by Senator Cynthia Lummis, who said it is “urgent to discuss the creation of a BSR.”
- Trump issued an executive order to form a presidential team specialized in digital assets with the purpose of evaluating the incorporation of these assets into the National Reserve.
Although an aggressive movement to establish a BSR is not considered as the base case of Capriole Investments for 2025, it points out that any positive and unexpected development in this direction could trigger a significant wave of long -term Bitcoin purchases. According to your analysis, it is yet to be determined whether this will happen during this cycle, but hopes eventually happens.
For these reasons, the firm anticipates that The uncertainty and market surprises could lean favorably towards a rise in 2025.
According to the report, the BTC setback from its new historical maximum is attributed to the “fear” that dominates in recent weeks in the social space, mainly driven by the increase in yields of the 10 -year Treasury bonds and the recoil in Risk markets earlier this year.
For Capriolle, this market drop is temporary according to different indicators such as the S&P500 Sale options. This reached extreme levels similar to those of the Covid-19 Pandemia in 2020, which historically has been a “strong purchase signal,” distinguishes.
The company also emphasizes that, historically, between 12 and 18 months after each Halving of Bitcoin, its price tends to reach the peak of the upward cycle, driven by changes in the dynamics of supply and the increase in demand. It is in this window when the greatest historical yields are observed, and a greater performance of the Altcoins.
According to Capriole, this indicates that The true meat of the Bitcoin cycle, especially for the Altcoins, is yet to come. “The scenario seems promising for all cryptocurrencies in 2025,” culminates.