Matt Hougan, investment director of the Bitwise firm, believes that Bitcoin’s traditional cycle (BTC) could be significantly altered. This, due to the growing institutional interest and the regulatory changes that are emerging in the United States.
In a message posted on X this January 31, Hougan explained that the BTC price has traditionally followed a sequence of three strong years, with increases; followed by a year of setback, with constant falls. In general, some important event within the ecosystem Mark the passage from one stage to another.
Following that trend, it is estimated that the last 4 -year cycle began in 2023, when Grayscale won his legal battle against the United States Stock Exchange and Securities Commission (SEC) for an ETF in the cash of Bitcoin.
Depending on this, 2025 is expected to be another strong year and that 2026 is a year of fallas observed in the table shared by the Executive in the social network.
However, the perspectives for the next year They can differ from the previous cyclesdue to the influence of a series of factors.
In a four -year classic cycle, we would be preparing for a setback in 2026. And to be fair, I see the first signs of leverage accumulation, as companies issue debt to buy Bitcoin and increase the “loans guaranteed with Bitcoin. But we have something different in this cycle: the change in Washington’s attitude towards cryptocurrencies.
Matt Hougan, CEO of Bitwise.
In this way, the Executive observes that political events now have a greater incidence in the price. This, regardless of the reduction events in half of Bitcoin (halving), which so far They have been the main drivers of the cycle four years old.
Hougan attributes this change – in part – to the executive order of January 23 of President Donald Trump, who established the creation of a national reserve of digital assets. This, coupled with the favorable regulation that is expected to arise during the Republican government.
As Criptonoticias has reported, with Trump’s decree, a digital asset advisory commission is created and agencies such as the SEC are ordered Work in a new regulation.
The agency has already begun to make the changes and are preparing to cooperate with Congress in the elaboration of laws. A scenario that “probably accelerates the integration of Wall Street into the cryptocurrency market,” says Hougan.
He argues his prediction by remembering that the turn that Washington has given is paving the way for traditional institutions They continue to get In the world of cryptocurrencies. This time massively.
Bitcoin’s upward cycle is extended
The changes that are predicted with the regulation of the US. UU. Will have long -term incidents, exposes the CEO of Bitwise. Thus, it is taken into account that the elaboration of the new laws may take time to realize.
Hougan provides that regulations would begin to be implemented more or less in a year. Something that It will end up being positive for Bitcoin.
“If institutions really begin to orient themselves towards cryptocurrencies next year, will we really have a new crypto winter in 2026?” Asks Hougan, suggesting that The answer is no.
Hence, he expects that the sequelae of the US movement introduce “a new wave that will take place over a decade.”
And although he acknowledges that there will still be market cycles, he thinks that future price drops They will be “shorter” and “less deep»That in previous years.
For now, Hougan predicts a 2025 bullish. He assures that the BTC price will double and exceed $ 200,000. The impulse comes from the flows to the ETFs and the purchases that make corporations and governments.
He warned that excess leverage and speculation could still lead to setbacks, but believes that these corrections They will be less severe than in past cycles Thanks to a more diversified and value -oriented investor base.