However, the HDE emphasizes that this development should not be interpreted as recovery. Rather, it should only be interpreted as a result of the waiting behavior of consumers about directional events such as the upcoming Bundestag election.
The inclination tendency is currently falling again and is now even less than a year ago. At the same time, consumers do not plan to strengthen their savings efforts. With a view to private consumption, they continue to show themselves waiting and reserved. According to HDE, noticeable growth is therefore not to be expected in the coming months.
Consumers do not look more optimistic about the economic development of the next few weeks, but they do not expect any further clouding. Their economic expectations stagnate. The own income expectations that rise slightly compared to the previous month are positive. The changes in income and social security contributions that are relevant to income and social security contributions at the turn of the year are included. In addition, consumers see no major risks for their own workplace and thus their own income. Overall, consumers do not look much more optimistic about the upcoming weeks than in the previous month. Although her mood has not deteriorated, but not clearly recovered despite lightening. If consumer retention continues, you seem to wait and see which impulses will result in the next few weeks and months. Depending on the result of the Bundestag election on February 23, the subsequent coalition negotiations and the further development in the USA with new president, consumers will then be more optimistic or pessimistic. According to HDE, a recovery of private consumption with significant overall economic growth impulses is not to be expected in the first quarter.
The HDE consumption barometer, which will be released on the first Monday of a month, is based on a monthly survey of below 1,600 people to acquire tendency, tendency to save, financial situation and other consumer-relevant factors. The consumer barometer created by the Handelsblatt Research Institute (HRI) on behalf of the HDE has an indicator function for private consumption. It is not the current consumer behavior, but the expected mood in the next three months.