In three years since the full -scale invasion of Russia’s Ukraine, nothing has changed financially for Moscow because it has trade relations with the rest of the world.
In 2021, about 50% of Russia’s exports went to European countries, including Belarus and Ukraine, Economic complexity observatoryThose exports had bulk energy products, mainly crude oil and gas.
Nevertheless, by the end of 2023, after less than two years of the onset of the attack on 24 February, 2022, the picture completely changed.
The recently published figures of OEC for 2023 show China and India as two main export markets of Russia, 32.7% and 16.8% related – accounting for half a total. In 2021, China calculated 14.6% Russian exports, where India had only 1.56% account.
Both countries have increased the export market share taken by European countries. The 2023 figures are barely accounting for 15% of Russian exports to European nations, which is a major decline from about 50% two years ago.
While OEC has not yet published data for 2024, discover data from other sources, Russian foreign trade tracker Published by the Brugel Economic Think Tank in Brussels, suggestion is in accordance with the 2023 data in export sites.
The available trade data depends only on the official figures, which means that the oil sent by the so -called shade fleet of Russia is not included in the long. If it was possible to include most of the aging ships without the standard western insurance of the industry, it would show that China and India import more from Russia. For Kiev School of Economics on 70% of Russia’s total sebourne crude oil exports, 95% with India, China and Turkey are through shade fleet.
From west to east
Russia’s replaceable export photo boils for two factors since 2022: European Union is dramatically away from buying Russian oil and gas, and China and India replace subjects as the main buyers.
The imports of the European Union of Russian crude oil have declined by 90%, which is about the invasion of this attack that it has reduced the amount of Russian gas, which is 40% of its supply in 2021 in 2021 15% It is done.
One of the researchers of Brugel, one of the Russian business trackers,, one of the Zolt Darwas said, “A big turn of trade away from the west,” one of the researchers of Brugel, who has its Russian The business works on the tracker, told DW.
“Nations that did not ban Russia, especially China and Turkey, Kazakhstan and some other countries enhanced their trade with Russia.”
For OEC figures, Russian exports for Turkey increased from 4.18% (2021) to 7.86% (2023), while SEN has increased slight since 2021 – Kazakhstan and Hungary – both Kremlin -friendly – SEN since 2021.
‘Russia is now the vassal of China’
Probably the most important overall change for Russia is the nature of its relations with China in both trade and geopolitics.
Elina Ribkova, the Economist with the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said, “Russia is now China’s vassal.”
China’s trade importance for Russia was now so unbalanced, said that it leaves Beijing with leverage on Moscow. “China is the largest trade partner, which is the smallest part of Russia, where China is exported,” Xi said. “For Russia, it is now the largest trade partner.”
The Darwas feels that Moscow is dependent on China to supply various components, high-tech goods and manufacturing products in front of Western restrictions. “Russia is a big country, but does not have the ability to be self -sufficient,” Heer said. “So, it should get thesis product from elsewhere. And fast, it is China.”
Ribkova argues that China helps Russia to sell its product as well as facilitates the distribution of western-built components to the country. The so -called double -use items that can be used for both citizens and military purposes are specific.
What is undisputed is what extent China has increased as a provider of imports of Russia.
According to OEC data, China provided 53% of its imports in 2023, above 25.7% in 2021. Türkiye, Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates export more to Russia than 2021. Broadly two years ago.
The huge twist for Chinese -made goods largely replace European exports. Back to 2021, the European Union countries and the UK calculated more than one third of Russian imports. By the end of 2023, the figure was reduced by 20%.
As for the supply of Beijing, OEC data says 38% of $ 110 billion (€ 104.8 billion) of goods sold to Moscow in 2023 had a wide range of machine products and components. About 21% is related to transportation, discovering cars, trucks, tractors and auto parts. China sold billions of dollars of metals, plastic and rubbing, chemical products and textiles.
a new world
While Russia’s trade has been changed, experts say it is not necessarily better.
The Darvas feel that Russia is “alive”, but “the quality of the same products is not getting,” some more economy will have an impact.
Elina Ribkova argues that things “do not feel as bad for Russia as many people in Moscow” and it has changed that partners show that it shows that it hugs the new multipulator global order Helps to apply.
“For Putin, I think this is a comfortable trajectory because they want this multi-polar world they are associated with China and others. And they are happy to take the cost for the economy for it,” Ribkova Said.
However, she warns that dependence on Beijing leaves Russia weak. “China is a gatekeeper for trade for Russia, while for China, Russia is like a partner in crime, but not an indispensable.”
Edited by: Uwe Hessler