“There are no winners in a trade war,” says Milo Bogaerts, CEO of Allianz Trade in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. “The export losses could amount to up to 480 billion euros. The global economy grows under the additional costs-even if the US government has given the European company at least 90 days. In 2025, bankruptcies are likely to increase by around 7% compared to 2024 in 2025 (previous forecast in March 2025: 6%), led by the United States with an increase of 16% instead of 11%. Western Europe would also be faced with more bankruptcies: Allianz Trade is currently expecting 5 % more insolvencies for 2025 instead of 3 %. “In Germany, the additional increase in bankruptcies through the US tariffs is somewhat lower than in other European countries,” says Bogaerts. “The financial package for infrastructure and defense captivates part of the negative consequences from the US tariffs. For Germany, we are currently expecting an increase in bankruptcies in 2025 compared to 2024 by about 11%. This is one percentage point more than in the previous forecast. In the USA, Allianz Trade expects a slight recession and a cumulative minus of 0.5%. A total of 2.2% was calculated for 2025.
US tariffs drive bankruptcy – shoe courier
