The US currency remains the favorite for international trade, but more by network effect than by intrinsic virtues.
The dollar reigns because countries, companies and banks are used to using it, a habit forged in decades of economic leadership of the United States.
However, this domain staggers. Numerous countries and commercial blocks explore alternatives to the dollar, while Bitcoin (BTC) emerges as a contender with unique characteristics that position it as the ideal currency for the future of global trade.
In a world of erratic policies and geopolitical tensions, the digital currency offers a neutral, decentralized and robust alternative.
The network effect: the ephemeral strength of the dollar
The dollar owes its supremacy to the network effect. The more it is used, the more indispensable it becomes. International contracts, raw material trade and central banks are mostly called dollars, reinforcing their hegemony.
«The international domain of the dollar is reinforced by powerful network effects: everyone uses it because everyone does. The economist Nobel Prize Paul Krugman modeled this dynamic decades ago, just when the dollar consolidated its global position. As international financial markets and trade expanded, more solid reinforcement mechanisms arose that promoted the demand for operations with dollar -based currencies ».
Maurice Obstfeld, American professor and economist.
However, this strength is vulnerable. The US economic policies, especially under the presidency of Donald Trump, have generated global uncertainty.
After weeks of volatility for the “tariff war” initiated by Trump, the dollar faces increasing pressures.
On April 2, the President announced reciprocal tariffs to countries such as China, Canada, the European Union and Latin America, only to postpone the measure 90 days, except China, which received 145%tariffs, as reported by cryptootics.
China responded with taxes to US imports, climbing the conflict until both powers issued signs of dialogue.
These maneuvers have weakened trust in the dollar. The aforementioned Obstfeld, former member of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warns in an articlethat Trump’s policies, including their withdrawal of international agreements and a transactional security approach, “are undermining the foundations of the global domain of the dollar.”
The growing US debt and pressure on interest rates aggravate the situation. The DXY index, which measures the value of the dollar against other Fíat currencies, fell to 97 points on April 21, its minimum in three years, before recovering at 99 points.
Obstfeld points out that These events could mark “a fundamental change in the global commercial order”.
The search for alternatives to the dollar
While the dollar wobbles, countries and commercial blocks seek to reduce its dependence on the US currency. A key actor is the BRICS Group, formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africaa block of emerging economies that represents about 25% of world GDP and more than 40% of the global population.
BRICS work to strengthen economic cooperation and promote a financial system less focused on the dollar. Led by Brazil in 2025, They drive reforms To facilitate international payments in local currencies. Although the idea of a common currency proposed by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has not advanced at technical discussions, these initiatives could decrease the dependence of the dollar.
This agenda has generated tensions with Trump, who in November 2024 (when he was already elected president) warned the BRICS that do not challenge “the powerful US dollar”, threatening to exclude from trade with the United States to any country that tries.
“There is no possibility that the BRICS replace the US dollar in international trade, and any country that tries to say goodbye to the United States.”
Donald Trump, current president of the United States.
Other global actors also explore alternatives. Economist Kenneth Rogoff, professor at Harvard, emphasizes that Yuan, the euro and Bitcoin gain ground as competitors.
Rogoff stresses that the weakening of the dollar is not only external: The internal debt of the United States, greater than 33 billion dollars, and Trump’s policies exacerbate the situation. Although it provides that the dollar will maintain its supremacy for at least two decades, its influence could be reduced.
Countries like India and Russia carry out Transactions in national coinsand Saudi Arabia He has suggested that could accept yuan by oil.
Obstfeld warns that We could direct ourselves towards “a future of monetary fragmentation” without a clear successor.
Bitcoin: The ideal candidate
In this scenario, Bitcoin emerges as a solid alternative. Unlike the dollar, which depends on a government, Bitcoin is politically neutral.
Its decentralized design makes it immune to sanctions or trade wars such as Trump. No authority can manipulate its issuance, guaranteeing monetary autonomy. This characteristic is crucial in a world where economic sanctions are common.
Bitcoin is highly liquid, with global transactions processed in minutes without intermediaries, ideal for international trade. Your offer is limited to 21 million unitsprotecting its value against inflation, unlike the dollar, whose money supply grew more than 40% from 2020.
In addition, the Bitcoin Network offers transparency and security, with registered transactions, reducing the risk of fraud.
Bitcoin’s adoption grows. El Salvador has it in its reservations, and more and more investment funds adopt it, such as the world’s largest investment manager, Blackrock with its Ishares Bitcoin Trust (ibit).
In a panorama where the dollar wobbles under the weight of unpredictable policies and geopolitical challenges, Bitcoin shines as a resilience and adaptability model. His ability to operate on the margin of borders and governments makes it a shelter against global economic uncertainty.
Discharge of responsibility: The views and opinions expressed in this article belong to its author and do not necessarily reflect those of cryptootics. The author’s opinion is informatively and under no circumstances constitutes an investment recommendation or financial advice.