“Now the Bitcoin market is much more diverse,” says Ju.
The fact shows the importance of not blindly continuing from others.
Ki Young Ju, the CEO and founder of the firm Cryptoquant, said on April 5 that “the bitcoin upward cycle (BTC) is over.”
As Cryptonotics reported, at that time Ju explained that his statement was based on data ON-CHAINin particular in the capitalization made, an indicator that estimates the real capital entered into the market according to the behavior of the Wallets.
This indicator allows to calculate the average acquisition cost and, by multiplying it by the amount of bitcoin in the hands of investors, a more precise measure of money that has effectively entered the market is obtained.
However, now Ju changed his mind and in a New post In his personal account of X he said: “I said that the bullish cycle was over, but was wrong. BTC’s sale pressure is decreasing and massive tickets are being produced through the funds quoted on the stock market (ETF).”
At that time, in April, the price of BTC was $ 82,000 and the market lived moments of extreme tension Due to the economic turbulence that reciprocal tariffs had unleashed announced by US President Donald Trump.
On April 2, the president applied taxes to the products from several countries, including China, Canada, the European Union (EU) and all of Latin America. A month later, the situation is different and the Trump government announced a commercial agreement with the Asian giant and the United Kingdom, which brought a relief to financial markets and, as a result, the appetite returned for risk.
The market sees these signals as a relief to the global tension climate, which encourages risk taking and drives capital entry into assets such as BTC. That is, in a stable macroeconomic environment, speculators feel safer to invest in assets considered risk, such as actions, BTC and cryptocurrencies.
In this context, the price of BTC exceeded THE PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER OF $ 100,000.
Now, what led Ju to change their minds in such a short time? In principle, A much more diverse market.
“In the past, the BTC market was quite simple. The main participants were the old whales, the miners and the new retail investors, who basically passed the control with each other. When the retail liquidity was exhausted and the old whales began to withdraw their funds, it was relatively easy to predict the peak of the cycle. It was like a game of musical chairs: all tried to withdraw their funds at the same time, and those who did not They were left with their holdings, ”he said.
Currently, the market has diversified much more by ETFs, BTC’s purchases by Strategy and other companies and government agencies. “Previously, earning cycles were triggered when the whales charged in the peak, which caused a massive sales chain reaction and a price drop,” he added.
Ju’s reflection highlights two things: the first, is the importance of not blindly following the opinions of others, but of analyzing various indicators, thoroughly investigating and understanding the new narratives or trends that are molding the market.
The second is how the BTC market has evolved, changing the rules that were previously established. Tickets in ETFs or the role that companies such as Strategy have diversified the profile of the currency holders created by Satoshi Nakamoto, which makes it Price movements not only respond to whale decisions.
To take dimension of what this means, there are currently more than 80 companies that quote on public markets that keep BTC in their treasury, according to data from the data Bitcoin Treasuries explorer.
Strategy is the company with more BTC in its treasury, with a total of 568,840 BTC. They are followed by Mara Holdings (48,237 BTC) and Twenty One (31,500 BTC).
For this reason, Ju said:
“It seems that it is time to rule out the cycle theory. New liquidity sources and volume are becoming more uncertain, which indicates a transition as the bitcoin market merges with traditional finances. Now, instead of worrying about sales of traditional whales, it is more important to focus on the amount of new liquidity that comes from institutions and ETF, since this new influx can compensate even the strong sales of the strong sales of whales ”.
Ki Young Ju, the CEO and founder of the firm Cryptoquant.
Its publication is accompanied by a graphic entitled “Signal 365 MA”, in which the price of BTC (black line) with a 365 -day mobile (EMA) average (EMA) of 365 days, an indicator of technical analysis that allows visualizing price trends over time is observed.
In the graph, it is observed how their peaks usually coincide with the historical BTC’s price, while their valleys mark market floors.
Currently, in 2025, EMA shows an ascending slope, suggesting that still The roof of this bullish cycle has not been reached.
Ju expressed that he continues to think that the market “is slow while absorbing new liquidity” and pointed out: “Most indicators remain at the limit. It does not seem a clearly bullish or bassist market at this time. Of course the recent price action is extremely bullish, but I mean the cycle of profit taking.”
The comment transmits a cautious posture. Although the price has risen, the indicators still do not confirm a clear trend, which suggests that the market could be in a consolidation stage.
This coincides with the “Signal 365 Ma” chart, which shows a rebound in 2025, although it is still far from the euphoria levels of previous cycles.
Finally, the CEO of Cryptoquant apologized for the incorrect prediction and promised that it will strive to offer higher quality analysis. “That I am wrong does not mean that the data ON-CHAIN Be useless, ”he concluded.
