The world held his breath on May 12, when the United States and China agreed to pause in their fierce tariff war. However, this calm, limited to 90 days, It does not dissipate the clouds of uncertainty that threaten the global economy.
The agreement reached between the two powers partially suspends the reciprocal rates that had climbed to historical levels. The United States reduced its tariffs to Chinese products from 145% to 30%, while China reduced its own from 125% to 10%.
In addition, a formal mechanism was established to continue negotiations, with the aim of avoiding new climbs. This respite comes after months of tensions, marked by Chinese restrictions on the export of rare earths – chrucial for American technology and defense – and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration to dozens of countries.
The previous context was bleak. Global supply chains faced disruptions, Inflationary risks grew and the threat of a global economic slowdown in the markets.
Therefore, the agreement, although temporary, has been received as a relief. However, there are structural problems that persist.
High tariffs and a new commercial reality
According to Calculations of Peter Draper, executive director of the Institute of International Trade of the University of Adelaida, and Nathan Howard Gray, researcher of the same institution, US tariffs, even after the reduction, reach a weighted average of 17.8%, compared to the 2.2% recorded on January 1, 2025.
“This represents the highest tariff wall since the 1930s,” They affirm In a report. In parallel, China’s remaining tariffs, although minor, remain significant.
Both agree that tariff -free bilateral trade is a thing of the past. “A new baseline has been established,” they say, indicating that Commercial barriers have come to stay.
This reality reflects a structural change in global economic relations, where strategic competence between the United States and China defines the panorama.
Complex negotiations on the horizon
The 90 -day agreement opens a window to negotiate, but the issues on the table are thorny.
China He has offered to buy unspecified amounts of American productsan echo of the failed “Phase 1” agreement of the first presidency of Trump, which was not fulfilled, the researchers say.
A review ordered by Trump in January 2025 confirmed that China breached Commitments in agriculture, finance and intellectual property. This antecedent generates skepticism about the viability of a new pact.
In addition, conversations will address Chinese monetary policy, their subsidies to state companies and non -tariff barriers that Beijing uses with flexibility.
Export controls of sensitive assets, such as Chinese critical and critical minerals will also be discussed. “If an agreement is not reached, both countries will continue to impose bilateral restrictions,” warn Draper and Gray.
The impact on the price of Bitcoin
The news of the agreement unleashed a wave of optimism in financial markets. The cryptoactive sector captured special attention. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed up to a peak of $ 105,000 after the ad, and although it has slightly retreated on the current day, its price is maintained above $ 100,000.
This upward movement responds to several factors. The tariff truce reduces, at least, the risks of inflation and economic disruptionswhich encourages investors to assume greater risks in assets such as Bitcoin.
In addition, previous uncertainty has reinforced Bitcoin’s narrative as an “active refuge” against economic instability, similar to gold.
This perception has been consolidated in recent months, especially after the April tariff climb, when the United States and China announced their reciprocal rates. At that time, Bitcoin fell to $ 74,000. However, he recovered rapidly, showing his evolution as an instrument of coverage in the face of macroeconomic instability and geopolitical risk, as reported by cryptootics.
The Bitcoin market has also diversified significantly. Bitcoin’s introduction of contributed funds (ETF), together with institutional purchases by companies such as Strategy and government reserves, has expanded the investor base.
These developments reinforce Bitcoin’s idea as shelter. In addition, it is a decentralized currency, resistant to the censorship of banks and governments, and that is not devalued by monetary issuance or political decisions of central banks. This quality makes it an attractive asset to diversify investment wallets, especially in times of geopolitical tensions or economic uncertainty.
There are risks in the panorama
Despite this optimism, risks persist. If the negotiations fail after 90 days, A tariff recesal.
In this scenario, traditional markets could face significant falls, which would boost Bitcoin’s demand as coverage (in case it continues to behave as “digital gold”) or could fall significantly, as it has done in the past (in case it remains perceived as “risk asset”).
Draper and Gray are clear: The agreement is a truce, not a solution. The strategic competition between the United States and China is far from resolving, and the probable cover is a long -term “stagnant conflict.” “None of the parties can overcome the other,” they say, projecting a future of persistent commercial tensions.
