Unlike gold, Bitcoin will always maintain an immutable monetary policy.
In the future, Bitcoin could even compete for gold market capitalization.
Gold production grows without pause, driven by both mining and a significant recycled gold flow that enters the market.
According to the United States Geological Service (USGS), world reserves They reach 64,000 tons Metrics, with Australia and Russia leading with 12,000 tons each.
This increase in supply, however, raises a crucial question: will there be enough demand to absorb this volume? If the answer is no, gold could lose its brightness as an active refugeopening the door to more scarce and resilient alternatives.
The problem: a constantly increased gold offer
Golden mining production has shown sustained growth. The USGS reports that in 2023 3,250 metric tons were extracted, and by 2024 3,300 tons were estimated. This increase, although modest, adds to the estimated underground reserves in 64,000 tons, which represent economically viable gold to extract with current technology.
But mining is not the only source of the precious metal: Recycled gold plays an increasingly important role in the global supplyamplifying the total offer. Most of the recycled gold (At least 90 %) comes from jewelry, and the rest comes from technology. This melts and refine to reintroduce them to the market.
This type of gold represents between the 25% and 30% of the annual supply. In 2024, gold recycling showed a significant increase, according to Bullionvault, a gold -sale platform, there were A jump in recycling Second hand and gold scrap in 2024.
However, he points out that “the increase [de la chatarra global] It has been more modest than some could expect to give the rise in the price of gold “, with a strong increase in Thailand that” remains below the levels observed during the pandemic. “
To this are added the technological advances that could aggravate the problem. Although experimental and expensive, the production of “Laboratory gold”Through nuclear transmutation He has taken his first steps. If in the future this technique becomes accessible, the gold offer could be firing even more, diluting its value.
In this scenario, recycled gold, underground reserves and new technologies configure an over -supplying overview that questions the sustainability of gold value.
Current demand: a temporary impulse
Despite the increase in supply, The demand for gold remains strong, at least for now. Louise Street, senior analyst of the World Gold Council, pointed in the report of demand trends of the first quarter of 2025: “The year has been a rugged beginning for global markets, with commercial instability, unpredictable announcements of US policies, geopolitical tensions and recessive fears. This has generated the highest level of gold demand since 2016.”
Street projects that This uncertainty will continue to drive demand in the coming months.
Macroeconomic factors have promoted this demand, significantly raising the price of gold, which grew more than 40% in the last year, reaching a record of $ 3,500 per ounce in April 2025as can be seen in the following graph.
The tariff war promoted by the Trump administration and its Pressures On the Federal Reserve, demanding immediate cuts in interest rates while qualifying its president, Jerome Powell, as a “great loser”, have generated global financial uncertainty.
These tensions weakened the dollar, increasing the attractiveness of gold as an active refuge. In addition, as cryptootics reported, central banks have contributed significantly to this trend. Since 2014 they have sold $ 300,000 million in United States Treasury Bonds and bought $ 600,000 million in gold. This is a sign of distrust in the Fíat system.
However, this fortress could be temporary. Gold is not immune to fluctuations, and its value depends on the perception of stability and external factors such as monetary and geopolitical policy. If the offer continues to grow while global uncertainty decreases, or if investors find more attractive alternatives, Demand may not hold, leaving vulnerable gold against excess supply.
The solution: bitcoin and its scheduled scarcity
Faced with the risk of excess gold, Bitcoin emerges as a solid alternative. Unlike gold, Bitcoin has an immutable monetary policy, with a supply limited to 21 million units. Every four years, the event known as Halving in half reduces the broadcast of new BTC, reinforcing its shortage.
This characteristic It makes it an antidote against the devaluation of Fíat currencies and excess gold supplyoffering a unique value proposal.
Corporations are adopting Bitcoin at an accelerated pace. Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, accumulates 576.230 BTC, consolidating itself as the largest Bitcoin corporate holder between public contribution companies.
Other companies try to follow Strategy’s steps. Companies like Vinanz (16.9 BTC), DDC Enterprise (plans for 5,000 BTC), Digiasia (up to 50% of their net earnings in BTC) and Twenty One Capital (42,000 BTC), They are integrating Bitcoin as a treasury asset to protect themselves from financial turbulence.
This change reflects a transformation in the perception of Bitcoin. Years ago, the “serious” investment world looked at him with skepticism, But today it is recognized as a value reserve and a tool for shield capital.
Eric Balchunas, ETF specialist at Bloomberg, Look that investors are abandoning gold and effective, replacing fear of the FOMO. The following graph illustrates a Capital substantial output flow of gold -based financial instruments.
JP Morgan describes the dynamics between Gold and Bitcoin as a “devaluation trade”, where both compete for investors seeking to protect themselves against the weakening of Fíat currencies.
Bank analysts claim: “We foresee that Bitcoin will have a greater bullish potential against gold in the second half of the year, driven by specific digital asset catalysts.” Gold market capitalization, estimated at 22 billion dollars, widely exceeds Bitcoin’s, which is around 2 billion, But Bitcoin’s trajectory suggests that this gap will be reduced.
In a world where decentralization and digitalization gain ground, Bitcoin, with their scheduled scarcity and growing acceptance, will not only challenge gold, but also It can be overcome as the preferred asset to preserve and increase the value.
Discharge of responsibility: The views and opinions expressed in this article belong to its author and do not necessarily reflect those of cryptootics. The author’s opinion is informatively and under no circumstances constitutes an investment recommendation or financial advice.
