Alcistas and bassists coexist at this time, which causes great volatility.
Woo maintains its bullish expectation for Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin (BTC) market lives a moment of high voltage. While investors sail between euphoria and uncertainty, analyst Willy Woo describes a scenario where speculation has overflowed.
In a context of record prices and contradictory signs, the behavior of the US market after the Day Memorial holiday could be key to understanding where Bitcoin is directed.
The coexistence of bullish and bassists defines the current panorama. According to Woo said In X, This duality drives significant volatility, with sudden movements in the price of Bitcoin.
The SOPR indicator (SPONT OUTPUT PROFIT Ratio), which measures whether investors are selling their BTC with profits or losses, reflects a moment of strong benefits for those who decide to liquidate positions.
This, says Woo, feeds that “the speculation about which Bitcoin is going crazy,” with investors seeking to capitalize on recent increases.
The following graph shows the evolution of the Bitcoin price along with the SOPR and speculation models. The peak in the speculation model (magenta line) reflects the extreme level of current speculation, while the SOPR (purple line) confirms that investors are taking significant profits, which feeds the described volatility.
On the other hand, The analyst warns that the situation remembers the Adagio de Warren Buffett: “Be afraid when others are greedy.” With this, Woo suggests that excess optimism in the market could be a caution signal, since euphoria usually precedes significant corrections.
The truth is that the combination of high profits and excessive enthusiasm puts the market in a vulnerable position.
The holiday impact on the United States
The Day Memorial holiday, held yesterday, May 26 in honor of the fallen soldiers, marked a pause in US markets.
During the last three days, capital flows to the Bitcoin network showed unusual stability, With a notable absence of new purchases in the price range between $ 75,000 and more than $ 112,000.
While capital flows have been stable, the lack of new maximums in the short term could give way to bearish divergences. The “Structure Shift: Bearish” graph with a timeline from April 26 to May 26, where the blue line of the graph falls and becomes red at the end, indicating a trend change. There is a progress bar that indicates a change of structure to the “Bearish” side (bassist).
Woo interprets this calm as a critical prelude. Investor decisions this week, with the reopening of markets, They could determine if Bitcoin maintains its impulse or faces a change of course.
Signals of a possible turn
Despite the general bullish panorama, Woo identifies the first signs of a bearish pivot in the market structure.
This implies that The price may not sustain its ascending trendespecially if capital tickets continue to weaken. In this scenario, Woo anticipates that the market would need to “exhaust another wave of profits”, a process where investors sell to ensure benefits, which could press the downward price.
However, the analyst does not lose sight of the positive horizon. “The general panorama is bullish, with the risk signal decreasing,” he says.
If purchases are reactivated this week, Woo projects that Bitcoin could reach $ 114,000, a level that would force short positions, that is, bets of investors waiting for a price drop. This liquidation would generate additional rising pressure, further boosting the value of the currency.
Next, a graph is shown in which possible future movements are projected until the beginning of June. The blue and cyan bars to the right represent “liquidity areas”, that is, price levels where there are many purchase or sale orders that can influence the price movement. The discontinuous lines that start from “Now” (now) They show the most likely and less likely routes that Bitcoin’s price could continue in the next few daysindicating the key levels, such as $ 114,000, that the Woo analyst considers important if the reactivated purchases.
Bitcoin as digital gold
Beyond the immediate volatility, the Hashdex investment firm highlights a structural change in the market, as reported by cryptootics.
Bitcoin is positioning himself as a “digital gold”, moving away from pure speculation to consolidate as a pillar in the global economy. This process, according to the firm, responds to a convergence between market behavior, regulatory advances and an increase in practical cases.
This transition suggests that the digital currency is entering a new phase of maturity, less dependent on speculative movements.
However, Woo’s analysis reveals that speculation remains a dominant factor in the short term. The peak in the speculation model indicates that the market is still far from achieving the stability that hashdex projectsand the risk of a bearish pivot could delay this transition. Despite this, the participation of institutional investors, as Woo points out, could be the bridge that connects this volatile with the most stable future that hashdex glimpse.
The role of institutions
Last week, Bitcoin reached a historical maximum of $ 111,000although currently quotes around 109,000 dollars. Woo attributed this impulse to the activity of institutional investors, who have led “incredibly fluid” capital to Bitcoin.
“I have never seen such constant movements; it is as if the institutions were averaging the cost in dollars with their billions,” said the analyst. This strategy, known as Dollar Cost Averaging (Average cost in dollars or DCA), implies investing a fixed amount regularly, regardless of the price, which suggests a long -term vision.
These institutional movements are strengthening the Bitcoin price support base. Woo also projects that, if the trend is maintained, Bitcoin could reach $ 118,000 in the short term, backed by a supply pressure generated by mass purchases.
