For tomorrow, the expectation of seeing Bitcoin predominates at $ 110,000.
In the longest term, bitcoin expectations grow.
An expiration of Bitcoin options (BTC) for more than USD 10,000 million is scheduled for this Friday at 08:00 UTC in Deribit, a cryptocurrency derivatives bag. For traders, everything is given for Bitcoin to be negotiated over the USD 110,000.
Until now, 92,888 Bitcoin monthly options, with a notional value greater than USD 10,000 million, are ready to settle. Of these, 49,555 are purchase options (Calls) and 43,333 are sale options (Puts), as can be seen in the following graph of detribit.
The predominance of purchase options at the mentioned levels indicates an expectation that Bitcoin could be maintained or overcome the USD 110,000 in the short term.
So far, the distribution of open interest shows a significant concentration of exposure in exercise prices (also known as Strike Prices) of USD 95,000, USD 100,000 and USD 105,000. This suggests that traders with positions at these levels face an important risk before any Bitcoin price movement.
In addition, the price of “maximum pain”, which is the level where the buyers of options would suffer the greatest losses, is located in USD 100,000, A key point to monitor before expiration.
At the moment, Bitcoin is quoted in USD 108,800 per currencyan increase of 0.98% in the last two hours, after having reached historical maximums above USD 111,000 last week, as can be seen in this graph of TrainingView:
The options market is a crucial indicator of investors’ expectations on the future price of Bitcoin. These contracts grant the right, without obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price on a future date. Purchase options reflect confidence in a price increase, while sales options seek to mitigate risks of falls.
A purchase option reflects a bullish bet, while a sales option protects against price drops. In Delibit, each contract represents a BTC. The ratio Put/callwhich measures the proportion between sales and purchase options, is 0.87, indicating a predominance of bullish bets among traders.
Sustained bullish feeling
This behavior in the bitcoin options market reflects a sustained bullish feelingpromoted by factors such as the growing institutional interest and favorable macroeconomic conditions, such as the recent truce in the commercial war between the United States and China, as cryptootics reported.
In addition, institutional investment has increased exposure to Bitcoin through derivativeswith large funds and companies incorporating the digital currency into its portfolios as a value reserve.
In the longest term, traders show even greater optimism. Previous Delibit data indicate that options for options with exercise prices of USD 120,000 and USD 130,000 have recently been negotiated, With a significant open interest also at the USD 300,000 level For the expiration of June 27, as this media reported.
This movement suggests that speculators anticipate a sustained Bitcoin rally in the coming months, backed by a relationship Put/call 0.38 in recent weekswhich reflects a strong bullish conviction.
However, tomorrow’s expiration could generate volatility. The “Gamma” metric, which measures the sensitivity of the options to changes in the price of Bitcoin, will reach its maximum point as the liquidation time approaches.
This could trigger generalized coverage by investors and market creators, who take opposite positions to those of the traderswhich could amplify price movements in the USD 95,000 to USD 105,000.
In spite of this, the DVOL index of Deribit, which measures the implicit volatility to 30 days, has decreased, which suggests that the market does not expect significant turbulence derived from expiration, as seen in the following graph:
The total open interest in Bitcoin perpetual options and future reached a record of more than USD 45,000 million, although it was then adjusted to USD 36,000 million, according to Coinglass.
As the expiration approaches, traders remain attentive to Bitcoin movements in the next few hours, since any significant movement It could trigger quick adjustments in the positions.
Meanwhile, long -term optimism continues to grow, driven by market dynamics and institutional interest. This, at the time when estimates of up to $ 120,000 per BTC are given in a short term.
