The expectations that many had and Bitcoin (BTC) marked new historical maximums were met. This scenario is predominantly bullish as demonstrated by various data.
According to a analysis by Charles Edwards, founder of the analytical firm Capriole Investments, This starts from the relationship between gold and actions. In his opinion, there are indications that precious metal can still continue to rise in price, since that ratio has exceeded the 200 -week mobile average for some time.
This is an indicator that gold began to overcome the variable income. That is, the price of the asset tends to rise faster or fall less than the variable rental market (that is, stock market shares). According to Edwards, the implications of this trend for both gold and Bitcoin are significant.
As you see, this configuration It could end up being a small breakdown for hard assetssuch as gold or BTC. It projects that the upper performance upward of the precious metal rise against the shares could be between 150% and 650%, as it has done in the past. This is shown in the following graph:
The era of hard assets
In his analysis, Edwards welcomes the “era of hard assets”, a time where there are clear drivers for the price of gold and Bitcoin.
In the case of precious metal, that to which humans have clung for 5,000 years, there are precise catalysts such as the fact that, since 2022, Gold is recognized as a level 1 asset by virtue of decisions made in Basel III. In that range there are cash and government bonds.
Basel III is a set of international regulatory reforms in the banking sector, developed by the Basel Banking Supervision Committee (BCBS) after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008.
This gives the gold the qualification of a reserve asset, with 100% value recognition by central banks. This factor promotes the price of the asset, because its demand and perception of universal value are reinforced, which acts as a key catalyst for its price in global markets.
Another driver for gold is the fact that the world’s main financial institutions are obliged to collate their golden gold positions with the physicist. This promotes the increase in gold holdings by monetary entities.
Bitcoin still has great potential as an investment
As for Bitcoin, Edwards sees how drivers quoted in the stock market (ETF) of the cash that, although they were issued almost two years ago, They have allowed the institutionalization of this kind of assetsallowing important capital entries.
It also highlights the creation of a Bitcoin strategic reserve by the United States government as another price driver. This, since “marks an important world milestone on the way to adoption nationwide,” according to the analyst.
As Cryptonoticias reported, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order To establish a Bitcoin reservationwhich would be composed of the nearly 200,000 BTC that have been seized by the United States in previous administrations.
The involvement of the BTC reservation in the price of the asset has already been discussed in the past. For example, the CEO of the Galaxy Digital company, Mike Novograph, predicted that the asset would be quoted in half a million dollars in case they became reserves of the US treasure to BTC, as this medium reported.
Edwards argues that the strategic reserve established a “clear and desired regulatory certainty” around Bitcoin and digital assets. In addition, remember that bank rails opened to digital asset companies after Operation Chokepoint 2.0, of the Joe Biden administration.
Indeed, under the new Commission of Republican Stock Exchange and Securities (SEC), the SAB 121 was eliminated, a regulation that restricted access to BTC and cryptocurrencies to the banks, as reported cryptonotic. In addition, the Trump government has pledged to end the “war against cryptocurrencies” that, they assure, the predecessor administration maintained.
Another promoter detected by the analyst Edwards is the strategy of using Bitcoin as a treasury asset in companies, a movement inspired by Strategy’s example (formerly Microstrategy), Michael Saylor’s company, which Holdea 580.250 BTC.
This example is nothing more than boosting the value for shareholders through the arbitration of traditional financial bond markets against the high yields of a non -inflationary asset such as Bitcoin.
For him, this trend has become exponential “and has seen many imitators arise,” to date, to date, They have shown “success in their own right.”
Indeed, dozens of companies from different items and countries opened their own Bitcoin treasury. In addition, they have created identical strategies to those of Strategy to acquire BTC, including debt issuance, as cryptootics reported.
The following image sample Recent purchases of Bitcoin by Strategy, being the most recent the executed on May 26:
What drives both assets?
The analyst also identified factors that drive Bitcoin’s price and gold. Among them, The freezing of Russian currency reserves in 2022due to the military invasion of Ukraine. This led to the central banks around the world, but above all of Russia, to increase their relative gold holdings and to explore pro -bitcoin policies.
Since Western sanctions against Russia were imposed, the Eurasian country has sought ways to get rid of economic moorings And, in this, cryptocurrencies have shone. In fact, the use of bitcoin and cryptoactive is authorized for international trade, and it was recently revealed that this nation uses 3 cryptocurrencies to make fun of financial difficulties, as this portal reported.
Another driving factor of the price of BTC and gold is high inflation. As the analyst sees it, “we have all witnessed a massive inflation in the last 5 years, drastically devaluing the Fíat currency and increasing the relative value of hard assets such as gold and bitcoin.”
Indeed, BTC has been influenced by inflationary data, especially in the United States. However, in current circumstances, investors do not have volatile reactions and have perceived Bitcoin as an increasingly solid asset.
One more factor would be the tariff war unleashed by President Trump, which “has seen a renewed approach in isolationism (against globalism).” That is, a prioritization of national economic interests and the reduction of dependence on international trade.
For Edwards, this geopolitical situation The relative value of the assets he calls “tangible” has increasedsuch as BTC and gold, as interest decreases in maintaining Fíat money without backup. An example was seen recently, when USA and China reached a truce in their commercial war. That event bounced BTC and took it very close to its historical maximum, which it exceeded after playing the USD 110,000 for the first time.
The analyst warns that current conditions recall to those of the time before the 1940s, in which there was also a Superior gold yield against variable income.
That is why, since the end of 2022, Gold has risen more than 100%. This, driven by a mass of mass purchases by financial institutions and central banks around the world, as seen in this graph of TrainingView:
Compared, Bitcoin has risen more than 500% since its minimum of 2022 endingsas can be seen below:
For the analyst, while the inflationary policies are maintained, and while the central banks continue to be overwhelmed, a bullish scenario could be given in a few years, with an increase of up to 5 times in the price of metal during the next decade.
That scenario generates optimism “on the medium and long term potential for both gold and Bitcoin. ”
A very bullish signal
Speaking in technical terms, although it is true that BTC comes from bearish gusts, especially when it was quoted in the order of the USD 75,000 in April of this year; the recovery that the asset had It was configured as a very bullish technical signalwhich marked the beginning of a new trend.
Also stand out for falsifications or Fakeouts That has had the price of BTC, which are a very reliable technical signal for Bitcoin, according to Edwards. In the context of financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, a Fakeout (or “falsification” in Spanish) is a price movement that seems to break an important technical level (such as support, resistance, trend line or key price level), but that is quickly reversed.
In that sense, the analyst comments that currently, after the Fakeout Of the historical maximum and with a weekly level of USD 104,000 by Bitcoin, everything could be turned up. This, since The possibility of prolonged price action opens. In addition, BTC remains on the most bullish technical configuration seen in the historical maximums of all time, according to the analysis.
To all this, the Bitcoin-Oro correlation is added, since, historically, every time gold has a rebound, BTC follows it 3-5 months later. This was seen significantly at the end of 2024. And the trend He started again in April of this year.
From Capriole Investments they see “a lot of margin in this metric” so that Bitcoin can catch up with gold in relative terms, especially since gold continues to close its historical maximums.
Edwards states that both gold and Bitcoin “complement each other well in a portfolio for this reason”, and they tend to Move in pairs similar according to the trend. “Having both sometimes can be an improved great return and a volatility shock absorber,” says the specialist.
A 50% increase in 6 months
The analyst Charles Edwards considers that, based on the on-chain and macroeconomic data, as well as cyclic and technical, it is estimated that, if the panorama is maintained, everything will be highly upward for BTC.
In numerical terms, points to an increase of more than 50% in its price In the next 6 months, that is, a price of more than USD 150,000 for the end of the year. This, “as a conservative objective based on similar historical comparable.”
The specialist warns that there are risk factors that could derail the rebound, among them, changes in geopolitics. Thus, the tariff war situation between the US, China and other countries stands out. However, he comments that the current truce could lead to agreements, creating confidence in the markets and enhancing the price of hard assets.
This last argument coincides with that of some analysts, such as Juan Villaverde, who plans that BTC will exceed the USD 150,000 if China and the USA.
However, Edwards considers that while the era of hard money is still at stake, “Bitcoin does not necessarily need to see a patrimonial strength” to maintain its upward impulse.
