At this stage of the cycle, there are few investors with high gain.
Towards the end of the year, the situation could change.
The cryptocurrency market is a land of expectations and fluctuations, where investors are awaited with the time when Altcoins, those digital currencies other than Bitcoin (BTC), take prominence and generate significant profits.
However, patience begins to run out. While Bitcoin struggles to maintain a stable upward, The Altcoins face pronounced falls, leaving many investors with losses.
In past cycles, it details a Cryptoquant analysisthe time came when the proportion of medium and long -term Bitcoin holdings decreased constantly, which promoted a sustained increase in the price of the altcoins. In the final stages of each cycle, the Altcoins used to experience significant increases. This phenomenon, known as Altseason, is characterized by an increase in the value and volume of trade of cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, taking advantage of the liquidity generated by the growth of BTC.
The current cycle is a roller coaster for the Altcoins
In the current cycle, Bitcoin has experienced fluctuations, but has achieved levels greater than $ 100,000 in 2025, according to the capitalization graph of Bitcoin by UTXO age bands or unbounded transaction output (UNSPENT TRANSACTION OUTPUT), show how possession patterns impact capital flow to the Altcoins.
The graph highlights key moments in Bitcoin cycles. Three green arrows mark periods in which long -term holdings decreased: between 2017 and 2018, 2020 and 2021, and 2024 and 2025. In each case, these long -term holders sales coincided with significant increases in the price of Bitcoin, reaching 20,000, 69,000 and 100,000 dollars, respectively.
In this 2025, after a decrease in long -term holdings, the price of Bitcoin stabilized about $ 100,000. However, two red ovals in 2024 and 2025 indicate periods of accumulation: a correction in 2024 after a maximum of $ 80,000, and a correction up to $ 74,000 last April, after exceeding $ 100,000. During these periods, long -term holdings increased, indicating that investors took advantage of these falls to accumulate Bitcoinwhich could have limited the flow of capital to the Altcoins.
Unlike past cycles, the current market presents unique challenges. Bitcoin faces repeated corrections after small profits, which generates an environment of uncertainty. During these periods, Altcoins suffer more acute falls, reflecting a general weakness in the sector. According to Crypto Dan, author of the Cryptoquant report, at this stage of the cycle it is “almost impossible to find investors who obtain profits with Altcoins.”
This situation has generated frustration among investors, who see how their Altcoins portfolios accumulate losses.
However, not everything is pessimism. The analyst points out that, as the cycle advances towards its final stages, Bitcoin’s dominance could decrease, opening the door to a more pronounced rebound in the Altcoins.
“It is not yet time to abandon hope. Since we are already in the second half of the cycle, it is worth waiting for the next Bitcoin ascending movement,” he says.
Signs of hope for the Altseason
Despite the current difficulties, there are indications that an Altseason could be forming. Cryptonotics reported last May, that Altcoins flows in Exchange Binance showed a significant output movement.
This means that investors were withdrawing their assets from the Exchange, which could be interpreted as a long -term commitment. This behavior suggests that the holders are accumulating Altcoins in their walletspossibly anticipating a future increase in its value.
However, for an Altseason to consolidate, the market needs to meet certain conditions. Until now, only 18% Of the 50 main altcoins have exceeded Bitcoin’s performance in a 90 -day period, a percentage well below the 75% necessary to consider that an Altseason is underwayaccording to the criteria commonly accepted.
Another condition is that the price of Bitcoin stabilizes in a new historical maximum for a prolonged period.
For now, this scenario has not materialized, which maintains uncertainty about the arrival of an Altcoins season. Although binance flows are an optimistic signal, The market still does not meet all the necessary elements to declare the start of an Altseason.
A different altseason: three factors that mark the course
If an Altseason is completed in this cycle, it will not be like those of yesteryear. Three distinctive factors are molding the current panorama.
The first is institutional participation. The arrival of the ETFs in the cash of Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) has transformed the dynamics of the market. While large institutional investors remain focused on Bitcoin, Retail traders seek opportunities in Altcoins. This division could generate an Altseason mainly driven by retail interest, with a more limited impact of institutional actors.
Secondly, speculation is located in specific sectors. Speculative movements are being concentrated in emerging sectors, such as artificial intelligence (AI). These projects are capturing the attention of investors, who see significant growth potential in these Altcoins. This trend reflects a more mature market, where investors not only look for generic altcoins, but projects with specific use cases.
Finally, there is a more friendly regulatory environment. In the United States, the expectations of a favorable approach to cryptocurrencies are raising interest in diversified assets. Investors anticipate that a clearer regulatory framework could facilitate the growth of Altcoins, especially those linked to innovative sectors.
Towards the end of the cycle What to expect?
As we approach at the end of 2025, the cryptocurrency market could be about to reach a peak.
Since the end of 2024, Cryptonoticias has indicated that Bitcoin could lose dominance, racing the way for an Altseason. If this scenario materializes, the Altcoins could overcome the performance of BTC in the coming monthsmarking the end of the current cycle.
However, uncertainty persists. The lack of a historical maximum sustained in the price of Bitcoin and the low percentage of Altcoins that exceed their performance are significant obstacles.
Although signs in Binance and the growing attention to sectors such as AI are promising, investors must remain cautious. The Altseason, if it arrives, will not be a homogeneous event, but a nuanced phenomenon for institutional participation, sector speculation and regulatory changes.
