For decades, the United States Treasury bonds were the financial refuge par excellence, the preferred option in times of crisis. However, with a record public debt, persistent inflation and global commercial tensions, that certainty fades.
In this context, Bitcoin (BTC), a digital asset that operates outside the central governments and banks, emerges as an unexpected contender.
Its decentralized design and limited offer challenge traditional notions of risk and safety.
Erosion of bonds as a safe refuge
The United States federal debt exceeds 36 billion of dollars, With projections of a 156% increase by 2055which questions the country’s fiscal sustainability.
In May 2025, Moody’s He reduced the qualification United States Credit to AA1, citing an increase in public debt proportions and interest weight. This reduction reflects less confidence in Washington’s ability to fulfill its obligations Without risks.
In addition, the relationship between the fortress of the US dollar and the yields of the treasure bonds is broken.
The 10 -year bond yield rose to 4.43%, while the dollar index (DXY) fell 5.2%, marking its lowest level in three years. In recent years, yields of both the dollar and the bonds had moved with a high positive correlation.
This decoupling evidence that Inflation erodes the perception of treasure bonds as safe assets.
Commercial tensions and the fragility of the dollar
Commercial disputes add uncertainty. Since February, President Donald Trump intensified tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, causing Beijing reprisals.
Although on May 12 a 90 -day truce was agreed accused the United States to violate the agreement, stating that Washington “seriously undercuted” the consensus of Geneva. Meanwhile, negotiations with Japan, India, the European Union and a partial agreement with the United Kingdom maintain markets in suspense.
This commercial volatility The strength of the dollar has also impacted, generating doubts about its valuation. The actual broad index of the dollar, weighted by the trade according to the Federal Reserve (FED), is close to its maximum in 40 years, 15% on its historical average, which suggests that “the US dollar, based on trade, remains expensive”, Analysts expose of the Financial Bulletin The Kobeissi Letter.
However, its 9% drop in 2025, the worst streak in almost five years, indicates an overvaluation that weakens confidence in assets such as bonds.
“The commercial war is changing long -standing relations between the different kinds of assets,” warns analysts.
Bitcoin: Digital shortage and autonomy
In contrast, Bitcoin offers a different alternative. Its protocol limits the issuance of 21 million units, guaranteeing digital shortage that does not depend on central banks. This protects it against inflation, a risk that bonds do not avoid.
Besides, Bitcoin eliminates the risk of counterpart: without intermediariestransactions are verified in a decentralized network.
Bitcoin is the epitome of non -censorship and financial freedom. Its decentralized network prevents arbitrary restrictions, making it a shelter for those who face economic instability or seek financial sovereignty.
As an uncomprivable asset, offers crisis security where traditional assets could be frozen. In addition, it is recognized as a long -term value reserve.
Despite its volatility, its price has grown impressively. Analysts such as Joe Albano estimate that he will reach $ 176,000 this year, while David Zanoni points to $ 150,000 for October 2025, as Cryptonoticia reported.
Redefining the risk
Risk assets offer greater yields in exchange for volatility. Bitcoin fits this definition, but his profile challenges the traditional notion of “risk.”
The Bitcoin climb does not respond solely to the Fomo – Mído to stay out, a speculative fever triggered by specific news – also to an organic movement of the market.
Treasury bonds They depend on a indebted state, while Bitcoin does not need intermediaries. In a world where traditional confidence is eroded, Bitcoin proposes a new financial stability paradigm.
Perhaps it is not Bitcoin who must earn the title of asset without risk, but the treasure bonds that are losing it.
Discharge of responsibility: The views and opinions expressed in this article belong to its author and do not necessarily reflect those of cryptootics. The author’s opinion is informatively and under no circumstances constitutes an investment recommendation or financial advice.
