Until now, there was only a market rebalancing driven by ETFs.
A period of low interest rates and money printing seems to be coming.
The Bitcoin (BTC) situation is currently studying. The digital asset has felt the impact of global macroeconomic decisions, as the tariffs of US President Donald Trump unleashed significant volatility in financial markets.
Different stock and market indicators in general have suffered falls that were not seen since the fateful 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic arose. An example is the S&P 500, which on Monday, June 9 He was about to register the worst performance in three dayssomething not seen since 1987, although at the end of the day he recovered.
Another example is oil, whose prices are at least five years agoalthough this could respond to a supply problem, but not demand. In any case, financial markets in general are restless and uncertainty dominates conversations.
In fact, before the topic of Trump tariffs began, Bitcoin already showed some bearish signs. Only last week, the UTXO bands (UNSPENT TRANSACTION OUTPUT, or transaction output not spent) suggested a bearish reversal. These bands, used to analyze the bitcoin network, They evaluate market trends and investor behavior.
While this happens, rates in the bitcoin chain remain low, below USD 1 at all priority levels. And in the Mempool there are practically no blocks to process by the miners, as can be seen in the following graph of Mempool.Space.
It adds to all this that the net flows to the funds quoted in the stock market (ETF), although they are mixed, They have registered falls from their greatest pointas seen in this Sosovalue graphic. This, pushing the price of BTC towards the drop at times.
All this indicates that Things look a little gloomy at this timeaccording to Christopher Bendiksen, who is the head of Bitcoin market research of the Coinshares analysis firm. However, maintains a bullish perspective for this 2025.
Where do we come from?
At that time, BTC reached USD 3,000, after a deep 85% drop in 2018 after the peak reached in 2017, of USD 20,000. Then, in 2019, a rumor began to spread about a possible approval of a Bitcoin ETF in cash, achieving a recovery at USD 14,000 in the middle of that year. Then he backed up when the ETF was denied. “We cool for several months and surround the USD 10,000 when we enter 2020,” he recalled.
Along with that performance in Bitcoin, other scenarios were given in the macroeconomic world. The yield curve was invested, the rest auctions failed, economic growth was poor and the fears of recession censed over the world forefront.
Also, interest rates increased for the first time in several months, the markets were unstable and, in turn, The actions were generally close or at historical maximums.
Above all, this scenario rested BTC, which began to correlate with macroeconomic events. However, it was optimism and speculation that really ended up driving Bitcoin five years ago, the analyst suggests.
“The market at that time felt quite driven by the policy and hopes of large tickets from new market participants. We desperately wanted those capital flows of the ETFs. And given how much the market shot once those gates opened last year, optimism was justified.”
Christopher Bendiksen, Chief of Bitcoin Market Research of the Analysis Firm Coinshares.
What is coming?
Now, in 2025, The situation feels disturbingly similar to 2020Blesen points out, remembering that there is a rather uncertain macroeconomic panorama, as was five years ago.
Interest rates have grown much more than then, at levels not seen in decades; Inflation has also devastated economies worldwide, and Germany has been in recession for years. In addition, there is a large -scale war in Eastern Europe, costing hundreds of billions of dollars. In spite of all this, the actions in the stock exchanges have been in historical maximums, “shaking occasional tantrums,” the researcher suggests.
“Here we are, having surfed the royal wave of ETF flows towards new historical maximums. Then, President Donald Trump arrives, with an almost incredibly pro-bitcoin administration. Suddenly, there are hopes of a BTC national reserve in the United States. For an early bitcoiner, that is nothing less than unreal.”
Christopher Bendiksen, Chief of Bitcoin Market Research of the Analysis Firm Coinshares.
For him, this would mean a “colossal demand of the deepest pockets in the world”, that is, The nation states. “If game theory about absolute shortages develops, it could trigger a career to accumulate coins between sovereign countries,” he said.
Although it is a vision with which Michael Saylor, Bitcoiner and CEO of Strategy disagrees, the company that quotes in the stock market with more accumulated BTC. According to this businessman, there is only room for a state-nation to buy Bitcoin and that is the United States.
Anyway, Bendiksen argues that the nation-state would inject the types of flows that could possibly raise BTC to challenge gold as the largest independent global value warehouse.
Until now, 527,764 Bitcoin, equivalent to 2.51% of BTC’s total supply, is in the hands of different governments of the world. Among those stand out that of the United States, China, United Kingdom, Ukraine, North Korea, El Salvador, Bután, Venezuela and Finland, as appreciate In this Bitcintreasuries graph:
For several of these countries, BTC is a reserve asset. And in general, it is a narrative that has gained remarkable popularity in recent weeks. In fact, there are analysts suggesting that the market is in a phase where hard assets, such as gold and BTC, will take all prominence, with the digital currency potentially reaching USD 150,000as reported by cryptootics.
The true upward market?
Bendiksen recalled that, after the economic collapse of 2020, the central banks of the countries were forced to intervene and “use the only real tool they have”, that is, The money printer.
In 2025 the scenario is similar because great economies are already preparing to start broadcasting money, such as China, Germany and other European countries. For the analyst, USA“Where rates have already been going down for a while, and where the intention of undertaking more stimuli is obvious.”
“It is no secret that Trump wants the printer to turn on as soon as possible,” said the analyst. “But Powell seems not willing to bite the hook, and if Trump’s tactics are collapsing the markets so that Powell flickering, I doubt it works, since the Fed is based on economic data that often have several seniority quarters for when they reach their desks,” he continued.
Thus, Bendiksen argues that, whether a recession comes or not, “the markets are already anticipating 4 rates cuts for the end of the year, in front of the 2 when Trump assumed the position.” This means a greater imminent monetary impression.
For Bitcoin, at least, this is positive, since, in 2020, after the global money printer was lit (and the global liquidity increased), “the true upward market began, culminating in 2021 with new historical maximums,” he recalled.
This is because Bitcoin has closely followed the global monetary liquidity (M2 global), with an approximate delay of 90 days. And, as seen in this graph below, The global m2 began to rise again after having contracted during the second half of 2024.
Remember that excess liquidity usually push investors to seek shelters against inflation. In that, Bitcoin, with his digital gold narrative, is emerging as the ideal candidate, potentially impacting its price, as already seen in 2020-2021.
For the analyst, “if Bitcoin prices continue to follow the global liquidity as close as it has done during the last three years, we could be facing a healthy rebound.”
An irregular cycle
The fact is that, until now, the cycle that Bitcoin has lived is “highly irregular” and does not resemble the 2017 and 2021 peaks, the analyst thinks. It is rather similar to the performance of 2019, according to what the UTXO bands suggest.
If it is wrong, the market is at the gates of a bassist reversal, so a significant drop is predictable Until organic demand finds balance for the price. “That would probably mean prices at least as low as USD 60,000, maybe even less,” he said.
Now, if you are right, the movements that Bitcoin has recently had has been a re -mayor of the market driven by net capital flows of ETFsadded to a speculative bet on sovereign flows that have not materialized.
“That is completely different from the easy money markets of the two previous cycles, and if what is coming is another important macroeconomic period of low rates and money printing, then the real upward market may not have even begun even properly,” he said.
