Reactions come quickly. A few hours after the early morning attack on Iran, the Saudi Foreign Ministry gave its opinion. He said in a statement, “The state of Saudi Arabia expresses its strong coincidence and condemnation of Israel’s aggression against Iran’s brother Islamic Republic.
Saudi Arabia is in a difficult situation. For years, there are efforts to bring Israel closer to Arab countries in its neighborhood, which are uniquely in the rich Gulf states. This was the primary objective of the US sponsored, so -called Abraham Agreement. Thesis improved relations under Israel and many countries including Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
Saudi Arabia was not in those countries. Although behind many types of approach over the years, Saudi Arabia-Sunni was seen as a leader in Islam as it is the patron of the holy sites of religion-always wanted to avoid the fact that solidarity was abandoned with the cause of Palestinians to get close to Israel.
After the militant group Hamas, this impression has been imported more since October 7, 2023 – was classified as a terrorist organization by Germany, European Union, America and many other countries, attacking Israel, with about 1,200 people killed and about 250 people were killed. Offering in Gaja, an anti -repayment Israel has killed more than 55,000 people. In November 2024, after more than one year of Israel’s aggressive Israeli, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Israel accused of massacre At a peak of Arabs and Muslim leaders in Riyadh.
Saudi balance act
This did not prevent Saudi Arabia from allowing Israel, although it has been allowed to use its ai from UAE to fly. And it is also that Saudi has become close to its traditional enemies, Iranians. Iran and Saudi Arabia broke diplomatic relations in 2016, but resumed them in 2023 after talks held in China.
In any relation with Iran, the Gulf states are quite likely to keep this current scenario in mind, called Marcus Schidder, which is the head of the project for the peace and security of the Frederick Embert Foundation in the Middle East and located in Lebanon.
“In the capitals of the Arabian Peninsula, they are well aware that they are sitting duck if the war between Israel and Iran breaks,” Schneider explained. “Unlike Israel, they are not protected by any effective defense system. They are afraid of this happening for a long time, which is why they have always tried to prevent Israel from growing through America.”
Since October 7, 2023, Saudi Arabia has been engaged in a balanced act, Sebastian Sons, a senior researcher and a senior researcher from the Gulf states in Bon-based think tank, carpo.
,[Saudi Arabia] Is committed to de-escase with all his neighbors, “Sons told DW.” In this sense, it has attempted to act as a platform for dialogue in various conflicts and has been hosted by several major summit-one-one-one in the war-which Iranians regularly participated. Sense, Thesis diplomatic activities are part of the Saudi model, which focuses on coordination rather than conflict, “Sans said.
This is why the increase in conflict between Iran and Israel is the worst situation. The expert said, “Saudi Arabia finds himself in the eyes of a storm and feared that he may have an attack on his own area because American soldiers are stationed there.”
Is the Hothi struggle hot?
There are concerns that the Hurti rebel group from neighboring Yemen, which is associated with Iran, can resume its attacks on Saudi Arabia. In 2019, the memory of the Hauthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities is still vivid.
Those concerns have seen Saudi more firm to seek diplomatic autonomy and improve their relations with Iran, Sons told DW. “They want to expand cooperation for more strategic engagement and other areas such as security. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has not stopped mistrusting Iran. It is still a serious reservation about its neighbor. This makes the situation of Saudi calculating the situation even more difficult.”
The Schneider of the Frederick Ebert Foundation said that the word that the Saudi Foreign Ministry has chosen is an indication of how dramatic this situation is for him. In his statement, Saudi called Persian majority Iran a “brother” country, a word that is usually reserved for Arab-Bahul countries. “This choice of words suggests that they do not want to go as Israel’s partner under any circumstances,” they explain.
The small Bay state of Oman, which previously mediates dialogue between Iran and the US on Iran’s nuclear program, ie obviously believes that a diplomatic solution is at risk. The sixth round of nuclear dialogue was to begin on Sunday, but has been canceled.
In a statement, Oman said that it took over the Israeli attack on Iran and it blames Israel for any increase in the region.
Stress is going on a lot in Iraq. Iraq has well -established paramilitary, known as the popular mobilization force, or PMF. Many of his fighters are ‘pledge for Iranian religious and military leadership’ because the neighboring country has proved him with financial, logical and even spiritual support as well as weapons.
“If the government in Tehran now tells them that everything is at stake, they can lift the weapon well,” Snider said. “They may be directed against American soldiers deployed in Iraq or other American goals. That is why the US withdrew some embassy employees [from Iraq] few days back. ,
This story was the original published in German.
