The longest investors in Bitcoin (BTC), those, who control the so -called “old offer” of the digital currency, are increasingly present in the forefront of the current ecosystem. Even being BTC holders that have not moved in more than a decade, the accumulation tendency is clear.
In general, the old offer is growing faster than the amount of Bitcoin created, also known as incoming offer. Show this is that around 566 Bitcoin on average are added per day to the old supplywhile just 450 BTC are being created daily.
The accumulation tendency of the old Bitcoin whales demonstrates that long -term BTC holders, those of the Satoshi era, have a Great confidence in the future value of the currencyand its behavior is increasingly affecting the market.
It must be considered that Bitcoin’s old offer is no small thing. There are 3.4 million BTC that are part of this huge treasury of yesteryear. This is 16.19% of the total supply of this asset. And currently, these currencies are valued at approximately 360,000 million dollars.
This graph reflects well how the old supply has taken spaces over the years, having an important participation today.
It should be noted that a third of all these bitcoin belongs to Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of this technology. This is about 1 million bitcoin, many of whom They could be lost or inaccessible. However, it is possible that some of these BTC circulate again.
Satoshi’s fortune is so much that I could overcome that of Great Titans of World Wealth, such as Warren Buffetprovided that the price of BTC is uploaded. Currently, Nakamoto bitcoin equals about 115,000 million dollars. A few meters from Buffet’s fortune, which ranges 156,000 million dollars.
How to measure this trend
A simple way to follow this trend is with the ancient Hodl rate. This metric measures how many bitcoin enter the old supply every day, subtracting the new BTC created.
As can be seen in the following graph, since April 2024 this rate is positive, which means that more bitcoin becomes “old” than new.
Since the creation of new BTC is programmed and decreases over time, it can be estimated when the old offer will reach certain levels. For example, it is expected to represent 20% of the total in 2028 and 25% in 2034, according to Fidelity.
If public companies that have 1,000 bitcoin or more are included, the old offer could reach 30% in 2035. However, these projections are approximate, since some companies They could sell or move their bitcoin, and others could start accumulating more.
It must be remembered that more than 70 companies that are quoted in the stock market have adopted Bitcoin as a reserve of value so far, and that a feeling of fear is spreading for staying outside (Fomo) among the companies for having BTC. This has led to high levels of accumulation of coins between small and large corporate whalesas cryptootics has reported.
Impact on the price?
The current trend of the old whales, to accumulate BTC in the ancient offer, thus surpassing the new offer, has been seen since April 2024, when the fourth Halving of Bitcoin was executed. In general, this usually has an impact on the price of Bitcoin, Because it creates relative shortage in the marketwhich, combined with a growing demand, makes the asset rebound.
Although certain events, such as market changes, They can even make the longest holders move their coins. In fact, from the presidential elections in the United States, in November 2024, during 10% of the days the amount of BTC in the old offer has decreased compared to the previous day. This is significant because it is almost four times greater than the historical average since 2019, which suggests a notable change in market behavior.
In this graph, each red point represents a day in which Bitcoin’s old offer lowered. This happens When more old coins move or spend on a certain dayexceeding the amount of new BTC that reach 10 years in the hands of holders (that is, they become considered part of the old supply).
This movement by the old Bitcoin whales can explain why the price of the currency has been stagnant in recent months, suggests Fidelity Digital Assets.
As they see, the fact that the old offer exceeds the incoming offer on average “does not necessarily lead to higher prices” and, in fact, it can have an inverse effect on shorter terms As the supply movements increase.
It is important to clarify that this movement does not always mean sales. Some Hodlers could be transferring their BTC for other reasons, as Wallet Safety or Changes.
All this context highlights the BTC scarcity component. And, due to the scheduled offer and the anti -inflationary nature of Bitcoin, as well as the data that suggests that long -term holders are becoming increasingly determined, It is estimated that the reduction of the supply of the asset continues to grow over timethey say from Fidelity.
For that firm, shortage is one of Bitcoin’s unique attributes “that no other existing investment or product currently has.” “And one that could become increasingly important if demand increases as the old supply grows.”
