Because of its volatility, gold is a better value reserve than money for daily use.
Although he does not mention it, Koesterich’s analysis could well be applied to Bitcoin (BTC).
The gold, precious metal that has served as a monetary anchor for humans for 5 millennia, has had a remarkable performance this year. Increasing by 25% in its price per ounce, the profitability it has left has been much higher than that of other traditional assets, such as shares.
For Russ Koesterich, certified financial analyst, Dr. In Law and Director General and portfolio manager of the Blackrock Firm Global Fund, is moment to hold on to precious metal as a long -term value reserve.
Koesterich considers that, in the remainder of the year, it is convenient to have a “small position in gold” as a diversifier of investment portfolios. This, since Metal, although it is not effective coverage for the short term, “it is an effective value reserve”.
As he sees, this characteristic of gold is particularly important today, since investors remain fighting both public debt, which is at record levels, as well as “heartbreaking changes in international trade”, due to US tariffs. To this is added the important pressure of the US dollar on top.
Greater uncertainty is equal to greater volatility
Koesterich indicates that the volatility of variable income assets, such as shares, has shot this year, as is usual amid times of political uncertainty in the world, since it ends up affecting investors.
Just that volatility drives gold, which, generally, ends up exceeding the actions and their main indicesas has done since January, as can be seen in the following graph:
In fact, a previous analysis of the firm Capriole Investments collected by cryptonoticias suggests that, due to this volatility in the variable income, it is projected that the superior performance upward of the precious metal rise against the shares could be between 150% and 650%, as it has done in the past.
To all this is added the enormous public debt in the United States, which has caught the attention of investors. Although it is not a unique theme of the North American country, since other nations such as Italy and Japan face similar situations, With public debts above the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The following graph shows the increase in public debt in the US and other countries for more than 3 decades. It reflects gross debt as a percentage of GDP. Likewise, the dotted lines show the forecasts of perspectives of the world economy carried out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Koesterich says that the growing public debt of the United States government is a reason for special concern. And due to the size of the debt markets in that country and the dollar reserve currency status, gold prices They have historically had a strong relationship with the US public debt level.
In that sense, as the relationship between debt and the US GDP grows, gold usually follows. And more importantly, in the past the relationship between gold and government debt has not been linear. That is, gold price earnings They have tended to accelerate as public debt has approached GDP. In other words, right now, the debt exceeds 100% of GDP.
The entire previous context would suggest that gold can help, in the short term, to endure attacks. However, Russ Koesterich He insists that precious metal is “a long -term insurance policy.”
“While the yellow metal has already had a stellar race, looking beyond, the greatest political uncertainty and the record levels of debt suggest having something hidden in its portfolio,” he said.
Bitcoin is similar to gold in many ways
All Koesterich’s analysis of gold could be easily applied to Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest digital asset, since, in many ways, This currency resembles gold. Especially in what it has to do as a long -term value reserve.
Bitcoin is an asset with a scarce offer. In the case of BTC, limited to 21 million units. This protects it against inflation and the devaluation of Fíat currencies. This characteristic makes it an attractive refuge in times of economic and political uncertainty, similar to the role that gold plays.
In addition, Bitcoin has shown a remarkable resilience and significant growth in its price in periods of volatility, Often exceeding traditional assets such as actionslike gold this year.
For example, so far 2025, Bitcoin has experienced an important increase in its valuefrom around 15% to 18%, as seen in this graph.
This has been promoted by the growing institutional adoption and the perception of BTC as a digital coverage against inflation and macroeconomic instability, as cryptooticia has reported.
In addition, the growing public debt in the United States and other countries, together with tensions in international trade, reinforces its appeal as an alternative asset which does not depend on centralized financial systems.
However, like precious metal, Bitcoin’s volatility in the short term can be a challenge, but its potential as a long -term reserve It is increasingly recognized.
In this context, following Koesterich’s argument but changing “gold” to “Bitcoin” it could be argued that a small position in Bitcoin would effectively complement a diversification strategy, acting as an insurance policy against economic uncertainty and the growing levels of public debt.
