The whales and the ETF reduced their purchases of Bitcoin in half.
Bitcoin could fall to USD 92,000, anticipate Cryptoquant analysts.
The Bitcoin market faces a challenge that puts its recent bullish streak in check. The entry of new capital, key to sustaining the impulse of prices, shows signals of exhaustion.
A Cryptoquant report, on-chain data provider, Point out that Bitcoin’s demand weakens, which could bring the price to critical support levels. This panorama, combined with a complex macroeconomic context, raises questions about the immediate future of the most important digital asset in the world.
He momentum of Bitcoin’s demand has fallen to 2 million BTC, the lowest recorded level. This indicator reflects a significant decrease in the entry of new buyers. In the last 30 days, cash demand grew by 118,000 BTC, a modest figure against the maximum of 228,000 BTC reached on May 27, 2025.
The following graph shows that the net demand promotes the price of Bitcoin. Periods with a fort “momentum of positive demand ”(green bars) coincide with significant increases, while a“momentum of negative demand ”(red bars) is associated with falls or stagnation.
In May 2025, the red bars are the most pronounced registered, pointing out a strong sales pressure or an extreme lack of new buyers, which generates an excess of supply in the market in cash. This cooling in the purchase activity suggests that the market could be entering a deceleration phase.
On the other hand, the whales – investors with great Bitcoin holdings – and the funds quoted in the stock market (ETF) have drastically reduced their acquisitions. Balances of whales grow only 1.7 % intermensual, compared to 3.9 % recorded at the end of Maysays Cryptoquant.
Also, daily purchases of ETFs in the United States They have fallen from 9,700 BTC on April 23 to 3,300 BTC today. This lower activity of the great players reinforces the perception of a weakened demand.
Less new investors, more selling pressure
The participation of new investors also shows a setback. Short -term holders (STH), those who have recently acquired Bitcoin, They now have 4.5 million BTC, a 0.8 million drop compared to the 5.3 million of May 27.
This decrease in the offer in the hands of STH indicates a lower entry of fresh capital, a critical factor for sustained price increases, since these usually depend on new investors buying from old holders.
In a typical upward market driven by retail, an increase in this metric can be expected, but the current dynamics suggests that the price support depends more on long -term holders or the institutional demand than new participants.
Where is the price of Bitcoin?
Cryptoquant analysts warn that, if the demand continues to weaken, Bitcoin could find support in the $ 92,000, a level that corresponds to the price carried out on-chain of the operators, a usual support point in upward markets. If this level does not resist, the following support is located around $ 81,000says Cryptoquant.
For its part, Swissblock Technologies, a digital asset market analysis firm, sample he “Spot Volume Delta”This measures the difference between the purchase and sale volume in the market in cash.
The negative bars in June confirm a negative net demand, where sales exceed purchases. This phenomenon is aligned with the least participation of new investors and the fall in the short term offer.
Although the price has not collapsed, Resistance is probably due to the fact that long -term holders are not massively liquidate their positionsproviding a temporary support at the price. However, “there is likely to be a downward impulse before we achieve a real break,” says Swissblock Technologies.
Bitcoin macroeconomic and bond perspectives
Despite the alert signs, not everything is pessimism. The price of Bitcoin is still in a consolidation phase between $ 100,000 and $ 110,000, as reported by cryptootics.
However, the macroeconomic context does not favor asset. Tensions in the Middle East, derived from the conflict between Israel and Iran, They generate uncertainty in global markets, affecting volatile assets such as bitcoin.
Nevertheless, There are catalysts that could reverse this trend. Christopher Waller, a member of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), said the agency could cut interest rates in July, since inflation has ceased to be a significant threat.
Lower interest rates reduce the cost of indebtedness, encouraging investment in assets such as Bitcoin. Currently, the reference interest rate in the United States remains between 4.25 % and 4.5 %, But a cut could drive a bounce in the price.
Another bullish factor is the growing institutional adoption. More and more companies consider Bitcoin as a reserve asset, following the Michael Saylor model, president of Strategy, the public company with the highest BTC holdings.
For his part, analyst Willy Woo points out that institutional flows to Bitcoin are “extremely fluid”, comparing them with an average cost average strategy. Woo projects that, if Bitcoin exceeds his historical maximums, he could reach $ 118,000 quickly.
