The United States would print dollars to finance war and pay for energy inflation.
When the M2 shot during the Covid, Bitcoin reached USD 69,000.
Adam Livingston – Book author The Bitcoin Age and The Great Harvest-, considers that the climbing in the war between Israel and Iran, which now has the participation of the United States, is “a nuclear grade caterial for Bitcoin.” This is commented in a post of June 22 on Network X, where it dissects why the war planes on the Ormuz Strait “shoot a bullet” against the bassist thesis for the price of the crtiptoactive.
He Bitcoin analyst considers that this global event is Bitcoin’s bullish catalyst because United States would print dollars to finance warall while the price of oil is triggered due to the probable closure of the Ormuz Strait, a sea road that is responsible for channeling 20% of global oil.
On June 21, several United States B-2 bombers attacked at least three Iranian nuclear bases, and Iran responded with 120 missiles about Tel Aviv, which was the capital city of Israel. This It was ratified by Donald Trump on June 21 in his social Truth network, who commented on the following: «We have completed our attack against three nuclear facilities in Iran, including Fordo, Natanz and Isfahán. All airplanes are now outside the Iranian airspace ». In this scenario, “Guerra is not equal to panic, it is an opportunity,” said Livingston.
Livingston’s analysis highlights that Ormuz’s closure could generate energy chaos, which is not negative for Bitcoin. Its author mentions an estimate of JP Morgan, which places the price of the Brent (a light oil type) between $ 120 and $ 130 if the narrow is affected, causing inflation in energy prices. Indeed, the Brent oil price It shows an increase greater than 2% in the last 5 days, And it is already negotiated above 71 dollars at the time of writing.
«Energy inflation is spark; The ‘monetary gasoline’ is the explosion »for Bitcoin, says Livingston. With this, the analyst means that when there is a marked inflation in energy prices due to geopolitical wars and “black swans”, of which the current price of oil is a reliable symptom or marker, The world monetary base grows to pay for prices. To demonstrate it, Livingston cites several historical examples.
One is the Gulf War, where the M2 money supply (a broad measure of the world money supply) increased by 5% and oil prices tripled. This pattern would have been repeated in the 2003 Iraq war, during which the balance of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) would have increased by 400 billion dollars.
The expansion of the world monetary base, especially that of the United States, produces inflation of Fíat currencieswhat is positive, historically speaking, for the price of Bitcoin. This cryptoactive is perceived as a refuge against the loss of value of other currencies that happens when its monetary offers grow.
As cryptootics reported, there are historical examples that when the supply M2 increases and inflation is “eats” the value of Fíat money, the price of Bitcoin tends to rise. In 2020-2021 during the COVID, when the mass stimuli shot the M2 in key economies, Bitcoin responded from $ 10,000 to $ 69,000 in a few months.
Adam Livingston believes that the war between Israel and the US, to which other actors could be joined soon against Iran’s favor will not be the exception, and will replicate these historical patterns where the increase in supply M2 correlates positively with an increase in the price of Bitcoin.
The fiscal domain has returned. War budget: $ 210 billion supplementary + Federal Reserve Recharge. The Federal Reserve is a meme: the treasure will issue, the Federal Reserve will buy and economists will call it “temporary facilities.” Translation: New dollars leaving the printer faster than the CGRI drones.
Adam Livingston, Bitcoin price analyst.
«Geopolitics has just provided Bitcoin the perfect two -stroke engine: energy chaos when inhale, fiduciary devaluation when exhaling. Each barrel extracted from the market generates new digital shortage, ”says Adam Livingston, who also considers a portfolio without a weight of at least 3% in BTC before Asian markets open It represents a danger to risk management.
