In a world where digital transactions move at a click speed, Mastercard, one of the pillars of global payment processing, faces a challenge that could redefine their future.
A report from the research firm Noah’s Arc Capital Management Point out that the stablecoins, cryptocurrencies linked to fiat coins, They represent a significant threat to the business model of the company.
This panorama, combined with a fall of more than 8% in Mastercard actions during the last month, He has led to the investment firm to reduce his recommendation to “keep” to “sell firmly”.
Cryptocurrencies have unprecedented disruption
The stablecoins have emerged as an efficient alternative to traditional payment card systems. According to Noah’s Arc Capital Management, these cryptocurrencies allow merchants to reduce costs, Eliminating up to 3% in transaction commissions instead of processors such as Mastercard.
This savings, although small as a percentage, is critical for retailers with tight margins, such as Walmart and Amazon, who, as reported by cryptootics, already explore the possibility of launching their own stablcoins backed by the US dollar.
The investment firm emphasizes that the capacity of the stablcoins to facilitate transactions that eludes traditional card networks represents an “unprecedented threat.”
In addition, the approval in the United States Senate of the Orientation and Establishment of National Innovation for Stablecoins, known as Genius, which seeks to regulate private stablecoins, I could pave the way for retail giants to throw their own tokens, as a hypothetical “amazoncoin” or “Walmartcoin”.
These closed payment ecosystems, integrated into loyalty applications and programs, could quickly climb, displacing Mastercard in retail transactions and B2B, says the firm.
Pressure on margins and valuation
The impact of this disruption is already reflected in the market. Mastercard’s actions (MA) fell 5% behind the news about the regulatory progress of the genius law in the Senate. For Noah’s Arc, this descent underlines the vulnerability of the paying company in an environment where Stablcoins gain ground.
The investment firm considers that the current Mastercard valuation is “dangerously high”, since your business model depends largely on exchange and network commissions, now at risk due to the adoption of low -cost alternatives.
On the other hand, companies such as Circle (with their USDC stable) and PayPal (with Pyusd), along with bank consortiums, are Developing Stablecoins networks For instant and cross -border settlements. These initiatives directly threaten international transactions rates, a key pillar of Mastercard’s income.
«The MasterCard business works well in markets with high regulatory barriers and low volatility. This is not the market we are going to, ”warns the firm.
An Achilles heel for Mastercard?
The possibility that the stablecoins are universally integrated into commerce raises a worrying scenario. If retailers outside Amazon or Walmart begin to accept tokens such as “Walmartcoin” for their fast payments and low commissions, Mastercard’s role could be relegated.
“The universal acceptance of cards will be compromised in the coming years,” predicts Noah’s Arc, arguing that the company’s risk/reward relationship is biased towards the drop.
This perspective does not go unnoticed by investors, who are reassessing an upward thesis that, according to the firm, is quickly weakened.
The combination of a favorable regulation to the stablecoins and the pressure of the merchants to reduce costs I could force Mastercard to compete in services with lower margins or risk losing volume of transactionsboth harmful scenarios for their profitability.
The other face of the currency
Despite this panorama, Noah’s Arc recognizes Mastercard’s strengths. The company has an unprecedented global scale, with 150 million businesses and billions of cards in circulation. Its brand, consolidated for decades, offers a confidence that Stablecoins cannot yet match.
In addition, Mastercard provides security guarantees, protection against fraud and dispute resolution, aspects where Stablecoins wallets have shortcomings.
The company has not been left with crossed ones. Last April, I know associated with circle and paxos To allow USDC settlements, what could generate new sources of income in cryptocurrency flows.
However, the analysis firm argues that these measures are not enough. «Stablecoins architectures are radically different from traditional payment networks. The shops will urge customers to adopt them, and Mastercard could lose, ”concludes Noah’s Arc.
For the firm, the threat is clear: Without a significant adaptation, Mastercard could see his position as a leader of payment processing compromised.
