Coinbase would be about to have a strong bullish rupture

The cryptocurrency market vibrates with a new impulse, and Coinbase (Coin), the main US digital asset exchange, is located in the center of a whirlwind of opportunities and risks.

The recent approval in the Senate of the Genius Law in the United States and the solid financial results of the company so far from 2025, They position Coin action to capitalize on the rise of the stablecoins.

As Cryptonotics reported, Genius regulations establish a clear framework for dollars in dollars. This is a catalyst that, according to the Financial Analysis Company, Hunting Alpha, “will significantly accelerate the adoption of Stablecoins.”

Coinbase, which generates income through interests on the reserves of the USDC Stablecoin, is emerging as a great beneficiary. USDC, with a market capitalization of 61,000 million Of dollars, it holds a 24% share in the Stablecoins market, only behind Tether (USDT).

Hunting Alpha Point out that Coinbase’s revenues per USDC, which reached 1,011 million in the last 12 months, They reflect an interest yield of 3.3%, aligned with cash standards in US dollars.

If the Stablecoins market grows to 2 trillion dollars and USDC maintains its share, coinbase I could see an increase of 7,000 million dollars in annual income In this way.

Currently, these income grows at a rate greater than 50% year -on -year, and The new regulatory framework promises to further accelerate this trendhe says.

In the previous graph, a constant growth in Stablecoins income can be observed from the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2025. Notably, Interannual growth shows significant acceleration from June 2024reaching a 58.8% peak in that quarter and staying robust with 50.8% projected by March 2025.

The commitment to demribit: a leap to the derivatives market

In addition, Coinbase has agreed to the acquisition of Delibit, a Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethher (ETHHE), Cryptocurrency of Ethereum, for 2.9 billion dollars.

According to Hunting Alpha, this operation is “a good business” that will boost the volume of transactions. In 2024, Delibit recorded volumes of 1,185 million dollars, generating estimated revenues of 296 millionwhich implies a multiple EV/revenue of 9.8x, well below the 22.5x average in the digital asset sector.

The incorporation of Deribit will allow Coinbase to venture into the cryptoactive derivative market, which in April 2025 represented 75% of the total negotiation volumes (5.14 trillion dollars compared to 1.76 trillions in spot).

This movement Not only extends the target market of Coinbase, but also promises an immediate impulse in profitability.

Scalability and rising margins

The Coinbase business model stands out for its scalability, says Hunting Alpha. Most of their income does not depend on labor or incremental sales, but on the expansion of the cryptocurrency market.

This generates a strong operational lever, evidenced in the high levels of EBIT (benefit before interest and taxes) per employee.

Besides, The gradual reduction of actions -based compensation has promoted an Ebit margin expansion In recent years, consolidating operational efficiency.

After registering negative margins in the second and third quarter of 2023 (-9% and -10.4% respectively), Coinbase has achieved a significant improvement, reaching a peak of 43.9% in December 2024 and projecting 36.1% by March 2025, as seen in the following graph.

Reasonable valuations and bullish trend

The historical chart of the Coinbase (COIN) actions is observed below. The crossing of mobile socks of 10 and 20 periods shows that it has already entered into a bullish trend and could be ongoing the “rupture” that Hunting Alpha provides.

Coinbase shares are quoted with a P/E Forward 10 years from 51.7x, which means that investors pay $ 51.7 for each dollar of projected profits for the next decade, a metric that reflects long -term growth expectations.

This assessment represents a 109% premium on competitors such as cryptocurrency exchanges and payment companies, although slightly higher than the historical average of 92%.

He P/E FORWARD One year, close to 53x, it is also in line with its historic median. “Coin is reasonably valued,” says Hunting Alpha analysts, who highlight an upward trend against S&P 500, with higher minimums that reflect a solid interest of buyers.

The previous graph offers a crucial perspective on the performance of Coin actions in relation to the S&P 500 index. A clear bullish trend has been observed since the beginning of 2023indicating that Coinbase has been showing a strong bullish impulse and a higher market performance.

Currently, the existence of a “minor resistance” is appreciated that is expected to be overcome, which could open the path to the most significant “monthly resistance” located at higher levels. This suggests that Coinbase has a “wide space to reach the next level of important resistance” in its relative performance, which is a positive signal for investors.

There it is visualized how Coin is not only consolidating its position in the financial ecosystem, but also demonstrating a sustained capacity to generate value above the market average, which complements the “reasonable” assessment.

Recall that Coinbase was incorporated into the S&P 500 index last May, as cryptootics reported it at the time. The inclusion of Coinbase in the S&P 500 marks a new milestone for the company founded in 2012 by Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam and which began to quote on the stock market in April 2021, through a direct public offer.

This reflects the degree of maturity and integration of the cryptocurrency sector within the traditional financial system.

Horizon risks

However, not everything is optimism. The Star Investments analyst warns on the risk of counterpart, where a financial institution linked to Coinbase could face solvency problemstriggering a domino effect.

In addition, if President Donald Trump signs the genius law, regulatory clarity could attract technological giants such as Amazon, with greater brand recognition and financial resources.

“Some large technology companies could have been reluctant to venture into the cryptocurrency market when it seemed to be the wild west, but they could quickly enter the market once clear regulatory barriers are established,” he warns.

In that sense, if the competition slows income or reduces margins, investors could sell the shares, says the analyst.

Coinbase faces a decisive moment. The Genius law, the acquisition of Deribit and a scalable business model are powerful catalysts, but the risks of counterpart and the possible entry of new competitors demand surveillance.

Hunting Alpha qualifies Coin as “strong purchase”, projecting a performance higher than the S&P 500 In the coming months, although investors must monitor everything that surrounds the company.

In a boiling market, Coinbase seems ready to take off, but the flight is not exempt from turbulence.