For now, Bitcoin maintains a structure that can be described as a bullish.
A recovery of demand and conviction is required to reach new maximums.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated a lateralization between the USD 100,000 and USD 110,000, something demonstrated after the recovery of the fall at $ 99,000 last weekend. In general, the movement in that price range reflects the general uncertainty of the market and the possible compression of the asset contribution.
According to the most recent analysis of the Glassnode firm, if Bitcoin remains on the range of USD 93,000 and USD 100,000, The long -term upward trend of this currency will remain in force In the coming weeks.
Now, if it went back and fell below that brand, an even greater correction for BTC could be triggered, especially if the investors that bought near that level begin to sell in mass.
The following graph, called heat map of the cost distribution, allows to visualize the distribution of prices to which investors acquired BTC and how these are concentrated in certain price ranges. In this case, the range of 93,000 and $ 100,000 is highlighted as a key purchase area.
There are currently signs that the profitability of investors is decreasing and the activity within the network has cooled. These are common behaviors at a time when the market takes a break After important increases.
As long as the profits and the movement of funds on the network do not increase, it is unlikely that BTC will reach new maximums, they say from Glassnode.
This coincides with the analysis carried out by the firm Cryptoquant, which indicates that the entry of again money, a key factor in sustaining the impulse of prices, shows signs of exhaustion, as reported cryptootics.
A cooling phase in progress
If the total profitability accumulated in this current cycle is observed and compared to that of the 2020-2022 period, it is denoted that, at that time, investors earned about USD 550,000 million in total, while in this cycle More than USD 650,000 million have already been earnedas seen in the graph below:
However, “the market seems to be in a cooling phase after the third significant wave of profits,” they point out from Glassnode. This suggests that, although many profits have already been obtained, Now investors are being more cautious.
Another indicator that there is a cooling cooling, is the amount of money moving in the Bitcoin network, which is also going down. The average of 7 days of the volume of transfers fell 32%, from a peak of USD 76,000 million at the end of May Up to USD 52,000 million last weekend.
In addition, BTC’s last attempt to exceed its historical maximum (when it reached USD 111,000) was not accompanied by an increase in the purchase and sale volume in cash, which is now at USD 7.7 billion, much less than the levels seen at other strong times in the market.
And while there is still expectation, since the futures market still has enough activity, even during the recent rise; This interest is not as aggressive as beforeas can be seen in the following graph. Financing rates and other key metrics are going down, indicating less desire to bet strongly the price continuing to rise.
This could be due to the fact that many are making more conservative strategies, such as arbitration, or even estimating that the price will fall. All this shows that The speculative enthusiasm has lost strength.
How will the price continue then?
As we saw, at this time, the Bitcoin market seems to be in a kind of pause, where the price remains within a narrow range And it does not show a clear direction.
This behavior pattern, where the price is consolidated without significant movements, usually precedes an important break, whether bullish or bassist, depending on external factors that act as catalysts.
If the market receives positive signals, such as economic improvements, greater institutional adoption or a massive capital entry, the price could experience a strong bullish rebound. On the contrary, if negative news arises, the fear between investors is increased or a key support level is likely, the price is likely to fall abruptly, unleashing a significant bearish movement.
Potential bullish catalysts include more solid peace agreements in the Middle East, a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, the reduction of interest rates in the United States or indications of a possible low rate decline in that country. While potential bassist propellers cover an escalation in armed conflicts that are currently being fought in the world, as well as a resumption of the United States tariff war or even high -impact unforeseen events, known as black swans.
However, there are analysts like Ryan Lee, chief analyst of Bitget Research, who estimate that BTC will reach the range between 110,000 and $ 115,000 for the third quarter of the year. Others, such as Willy Woo, a professional analyst and trader, believe that the BTC bullish cycle “is entering its final phase,” as cryptootics has reported.
In general, BTC’s current behavior suggests that it is accumulating tension in the market. That tension, sooner or later, It will be released in the form of an abrupt movementeither up or down. The address, of course, will depend on what type of event or news acts as a catalyst.
