It seems that the most dangerous phase of the current Israeli-Irani struggle has passed. The ceasefire agreed on Monday under US President Donald Trump has been stable despite some breakdown. With this, the Middle Eastern state is using a break to consider conflict and its honor.
It seems that many countries in the region were generally aimed at the fight between Israel and Iran: maintaining ambiguity.
For example, Jordan, in a public statement, spoke about Israel’s attacks on Iran with 20 other Arab and Muslim majority countries. But at the same time, its Air Force stopped the Iranian rocket and drone from flying on the airspace of Jordan towards Israel. Jordan says he did so to protect his citizens.
Saudi Arabia signed the statement, but is believed to have allowed Israeli aircraft to shoot Iranian Projectal in its airspace. German -based Consultancy, Middle East Minds founder Stephen Lucas had earlier told DW that he believes that Saudi shot his country the subjects of Iranian missiles on their country, although there was no verified report about this.
Both Jordan and Saudi Arabia have a complex relationship with Israel, including public criticism, but behind the back scenes. Both rely on their rescue and military cooperation with the US for Jordan, so the annual bilateral foreign aid receives financial assistance from the US to the tune of $ 1.45 billion (€ 1.25 billion). It makes Jordan one of the most achieved countries in American foreign aid in the world. Ukraine, Israel and Ethiopia are the other major recipients of American aid money.
Balancing relationships with Iran
At the same time, however, both countries are interested in maintenance stability in their own territory – and this means that a balanced relationship with Iran.
This Balance Act will continue to shape the regional autocratic policy especially in the Gulf states, Simon Wolfgang Fuchs asked for the Associate Professor of Islam at Hebrew University, Jerusalem. The Gulf states have noticed how Iran has lost its danger potential, Fuchs told DW, because they have seen how Irani included Hizbullah in Lebanon and Syria, and Iranian-supporter Iranian militia was weakened in Iraq. The Syrian state under the dictator Bashar Assad, which previously supported Iran, is subject to new leadership and hence no longer for the Iranian colleague.
“Against this background, naturally it seems sensitive from the point of view of the Gulf states to contact for this weak – but still very important actor – in the field, in the field,” Fuchs is argued. He said, “He is not interested in this rule, let it uproot it alone and resulting in chaos. Jordan takes a similar situation for the same,” he explained.
In fact, some neighbors of Iran are more interested in preventing the collapse of the current Iranian regime.
“The question is: Who will rule the Islamic Republic of Iran?” Marcus Schidder, who is located in Lebanon and heads of the Regional Project of Frederick Ebert Foundation for peace and security in the Middle East, Berlin -based political magazine, written for international politics and society.
“In the country, there is no organized opposition, due to understandable reasons – neither political nor armed [opposition]In exile, there are two groups that are ready – the monarchy and the People’s Mujahideen of Iran. “But for both groups, the Iranian public wild is his effectiveness and potential popularity suspicious, said Schneider.
Egypt to see us
The Egyptian situation is equally unclear. The Egyptian government welcomed the ceasefire Betty Iran and Israel and announced that it would continue to make diplomatic efforts with the goal of finding a long -term, permanent solution for regional crises.
So Egypt will have to find a careful balance, describe Fuch, as it is also dependent on American military aid. This balance act came again in the open due to recent incidents. Cairo has regularly rejected any scheme, which means to expel Palestinians.
“On the other hand, the Egyptian government has made every effort not to offend Israel and America,” Fuchs said. “For example, Gaza solidarity coming from Tunisia on 14 June involves to attack international activists by stopping the march, and not allowing them anywhere near Sinai.”
Egyptian Sinai area Gaza and on June 10, about 1,500 supporters crossed Palestinian workers and a convoy of more than 100 vehicles on the way to Libya from Tunisia on the way to Gaza. Another March in Egypt, who planned to join the procession, attacked the North-Eastern city of Ismailia by Egypt’s security forces on 14 June. Many were deported.
Egypt clearly wants to avoid any complexity in its relations with the US. The two nations have agreed to fight terrorism and cooperate to achieve Egyptian boundaries against unrest in Libya, Sudan or Gaza Strip. Egypt receives a large amount of military aid and receives about $ 1.3 billion annually from the US. It seems that President Donald Trump is unlikely to be converted into America, yet has not commented on the situation of disastrous human rights of Egypt, Autocratic leader, President Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi.
All countries in the neighborhood of Iran know about the importance of a balance among their colleagues.
“A weak Iran can be absorbed and nominated,” Schneider wrote. “On the other hand, a country that has been corn is severely battered and fighting to survive is unexpected.”
Fuch says that one more thing has become clear: the current US administration’s course is disturbing large parts of the Middle East.
“President Trump, with his foreign policy and use of social media, is throwing all certifications out of the window,” Fuchs argued. “I really doubt that the US will focus on the Middle East in the coming years. Israel and Iran are exceptions. There is little interest in further interventions and America’s attention will essentially move to East Asia.”
This story was the original published in German.
