After reaching a new historical maximum above the USD 123,000, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) stabilized this week around $ 117,000. In general, the market presents consolidation signals, although there are mixed indicators that suggest both a possible bullish continuation and a progressive cooling.
According to the most recent report of Glassnode, the relative force index (RSI) of Bitcoin, which measures the impulse of the market, retreated from 77.8 to 74.2 points in the last week, as seen in the following graph.
Although it still remains above the threshold that indicates overstrust conditions, This decrease suggests a slight weakening of the bullish impulse. The change is consistent with movements previously observed, where similar levels of the RSI preceded consolidation phases.
For its part, the volume of operations in cash showed a weekly increase of USD 8,200 million to 9.6 billion dollars. This increase reflects a greater market share and may be supporting the current price level. However, the accumulated volume delta (CVD) in cash became sharply negative, indicating a significant sales pressure that could be limiting the price progress.
Meanwhile, the futures market also reflects an increase in speculative activity. The open interest rose 7.3% in a week, reaching 45.4 billion dollars. In parallel, financing rates increased 59.5%, from 2.7 to 4.36 million dollars in seven days, as seen in the following graph, indicating a growing demand for long positions. In general, these metrics point to a high leverage environment, with potential for greater volatility.
Despite the increase in long positions, the perpetual CVD registered an abrupt reversal, which could indicate a profit taking phase. This dynamic suggests that some traders are beginning to close positions, thus reducing the purchase pressure and returning to the market more susceptible to sudden fluctuations.
In options, open interest continues to rise, while the persistent negative deviation in implicit volatility reflects a preference for bearish coverage. Although the general feeling remains optimistic, The presence of coverage indicates a growing risk perception among operators.
What about the Bitcoin ETFs?
In its analysis, Glassnode addresses the Bitcoin ETF market behavior in the United States. These also showed a rebound in the activity.
Net tickets increased by 21.7%, from 2.5 billion to 3,000 million dollars in a week, as can be seen in the following graph.
This institutional capital flow has been a key source of support for the price, although tooIt is observedor a slight decrease in the volume of operationswhich fell from 25,900 million after reaching a recent maximum.
The ETF MVRV ratio, which is the relationship between the market value and the value of these products, has decreased slightly in a week. This indicates that institutional investors are beginning to obtain benefits.
Despite this, general positioning remains healthy, according to Glassnode, with a market structure still dominated by long -term holders.
What Glassnode points out coincides with what Sosovalue’s data shows, which show that, until July 21, the Bitcoin ETF They registered 12 consecutive days of capital entries. In addition, in six weeks, these financial products saw net tickets of 10.5 billion dollars, as reported by cryptootics.
On-chain data offer disparate signals
As for the activity in the Bitcoin Network, the metrics offer disparate signals. Daily active addresses fell 4.1%from 769,000 to 737,000 in a week, which suggests a moderation in transactional demand. This graph shows that decrease.
Likewise, the total commissions also descended 6.9%, from $ 554,000 to $ 516,000 in the same period, reflecting a minor pressureón in the use of block space.
However, the transfer volume adjusted by entity increased by 43% in a week, from 11.3 billion to 16,100 million dollars. This rebound points to greater activity among large investors, Probably associated with strategy reallocationsCapital Eiles.
In turn, capital flows within the ecosystem continue to be solid. The capitalization carried out experienced a weekly increase of 27.7%, reaching 5.8%. This increase suggests a greater acquisition of BTC at high prices and an active demand dynamic.
For its part, the relationship between the offer of short and long term holders (STH/LTH) increased slightly 15.5% to 16.3% in seven days, reflecting greater speculative participation without significantly altering the structural composition of the market. In addition, the domain of long -term holders remains stable, according to Glassnode.
In terms of profitability, the percentage of the offer in profits decreased from 99.2% to 97.2% in a week, even above the upper threshold of 96.7%, which suggests that the euphoric feeling still persists. However, this fall couldIt would be an indication that some investors areencouragement to ensure benefits.
The profits not made also showed a slight reduction, lowering 13.1% to 12.9% in the same period. Despite this adjustment, the metric remains in a high zone, in line with previous bullish cycles. Meanwhile, the ratio between profits and losses made descended from 3.6 to 2.86 in a week, as can be seen below. This is a sign that the realization of benefits begins to lose strength.
Healthy, but fragile
From a technical perspective, the market structure is described as “healthy but fragile.” Glassnode emphasizes that the cooling of some profitability metrics and the proficiency activity could prolong the current consolidation phase.
Although a new bullish impulse is not ruled out, The market is at a sensitive pointwhere both the feeling and the positioning of investors could tip the balance in one or another direction.
Together, the data suggests that Bitcoin remains in an adjustment phase after its historical maximum. Although elements of strength persist, such as institutional activity and speculative interest, the gradual reduction in profitability and in some participation metrics They indicate a possible transition to a stage of less intensity.
Glassnode concludes that, although the market still presents solid foundations, operators must observe the next movements carefully. The possibility that the price of lateralize bitcoin during the following weeks is realespecially if the purchase pressure is stabilized and the speculative capital seeks a new address.
With still latent volatility, the current balance could be easily broken by extraordinary events or changes in internal market dynamics. For Glassnode analysts, the stage remains open, but demands caution.
